A major volcanic eruption is predicted in Iceland, and although the exact timing has not yet been identified, seismic activity has been increasing in the southwest region of the island since late October. This increase in earthquakes is raising concerns among experts, as previous eruptions in the same area, the most recent in the summer, demonstrated the potential for another explosion. Currently, scientists are debating the large areas of open ground, which indicate that an eruption of the Icelandic volcano is imminent.
In this article, we bring you up to date on the latest developments and what a potential eruption in Iceland means.
Days ago
In southwestern Iceland, October 24th marked the beginning of intense seismic activity, which is not entirely unusual in a country with more than 200 active volcanoes. However, the frequency and magnitude have been increasing to such an extent that more than 1.000 earthquakes are now being recorded daily. This seismic swarm is a phenomenon similar to events preceding volcanic eruptions, as occurred on La Palma in 2021 , where tectonic activity foreshadowed an eventual eruption.
Ármann Höskuldsson, a volcanologist at the University of Iceland, points out that not all seismic swarms trigger eruptions, but this swarm is undoubtedly the prelude to a major tectonic event that will release the tension that has built up on the Reykjanes Peninsula after 800 years of significant inactivity.
Origin of the volcano eruption in Iceland
The town of Grindavík, located in southwestern Iceland, is the region that has borne the brunt of recent tectonic activity. The earthquakes have shifted worryingly east and south, approaching more vulnerable areas of the Reykjanes Peninsula. The depth of the earthquakes has decreased dramatically from the initial five kilometers to just 800 meters from the surface, emphasizing the proximity of the magma to the Earth's crust.
Models by experts such as Professor Bill McGuire highlight a 15-kilometre-long fracture beneath the surface, through which magma is rapidly rising, suggesting that an eruption will occur somewhere along this line. Data from the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) supports this theory, as satellite measurements have detected ground uplift in the region, which is a clear indicator of magma intrusion.
Where will the magma appear?
The exact location where the magma will emerge is still unknown. However, the fracture extending from southwest to northeast is the most likely candidate for an eruption. Scientists have linked this phenomenon to the Fagradalsfjall volcano , whose activity began in 2021 and has been increasing considerably.
The type of eruption is also uncertain. Although many expect a quiet eruption where lava flows through fissures, similar to that of Fagradalsfjall, the possibility of an explosive eruption cannot be ruled out. If the lava flows south, it could reach the sea, which would be an unfavorable situation if it triggers an underwater eruption.
Iceland is known for its basaltic volcanism, which increases the chances of an effusive eruption resulting in lava flows similar to those reported on La Palma. However, the lava flow in Iceland could be faster due to the unique composition of the magma.
Doubts among the population about the eruption
Residents of the region, especially in Grindavík, have many questions and concerns about the potential effects of the current eruption due to the frequency and magnitude of the earthquakes. This region of Iceland experiences seismic and volcanic activity at higher rates than many other regions of the world, due to the country's unique geographical location on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
Iceland, located right at the junction of the Eurasian and North American tectonic plates, has been continuously shaped by volcanic activity throughout its history. This constant geological activity is the reason why the country is so vulnerable to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.
The country is divided by the Mid-Atlantic Ridge , which runs through Iceland and causes a constant separation of the tectonic plates, generating tensions in the Earth's crust that are eventually released in the form of seismic or volcanic activity.
Latest volcanic events in Iceland
The Litli-Hrutur volcano has captured the attention of experts and tourists since the recent eruptions in 2021 and 2022 in Iceland. This volcano has had several eruptions on the Reykjanes Peninsula, and the current seismic activity is estimated to be directly related to magma movements in this region. The last significant eruption in the area took place in the summer of 2023, with a 900-meter-long fissure.
During this eruption, much larger lava columns formed than in previous eruptions, attracting both tourists and local residents. The 2021 eruption of Fagradalsfjall was the first in over 6.000 years and remained active for six months, generating lava flows that did not damage populated areas but left a significant mark on the volcanic landscape of southwest Iceland.
Impact on Grindavík and surroundings
One of the biggest concerns for authorities and the population is the impact of the eruption on local infrastructure, especially in Grindavík, a fishing town with more than 4.000 inhabitants. Although many people have been evacuated, fears of lava or toxic gases affecting their homes persist.
The nearby Blue Lagoon geothermal spa , one of Iceland's main tourist attractions, has been temporarily closed as a precaution. Although the eruption may not have the same catastrophic impact as other historical eruptions, such as that of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, authorities continue to closely monitor the situation.
Should the lava flow reach populated areas or critical infrastructure, such as the Svartsengi geothermal power plant, additional measures may be taken, such as building barriers to divert the lava flow.
What to expect in the coming days?
Volcanologists continue to monitor the Reykjanes region and estimate that volcanic activity could continue in the coming days or weeks. Predictions are complex, as seismic activity and rising magma can have unpredictable behavior.
While the current eruption does not appear to significantly threaten life on the island, volcanic activity in Iceland is a constant that will continue to shape the country's landscape and infrastructure in the future.
Now we just have to wait for the evolution of this natural event and follow the instructions of the authorities to avoid damage to people and their property.