If we stick to a recent publication by a group of sun physicists, starting in 2030, the earth would be heading towards a mini ice age similar to the Maunder minimum, which occurred between 1645 and 1715. In reality, these researchers have limited themselves to predicting a decrease in solar activity 15 years from now, and everything indicates that this phenomenon will not really affect the ongoing global warming.
The controversy surrounding the predictions
A few days ago, a simple statement from the famous Royal Astronomical Society had a certain global impact. The article mentioned that the work of astrophysics Valentina Zharkova were to be unveiled at a colloquium on July 9, 2015. Zharkova and her colleagues previously published a paper in the prestigious Astrophysical Journal, where they claimed to have surprisingly modeled the cyclical activity of the sun.
This prediction of a decrease in solar activity has generated quite a bit of debate, partly because it brings back memories of Maunder minimum, a period of minimal solar activity that coincided with extremely cold temperatures on Earth, especially in Europe and North America.
The solar cycle and sunspots
We know from data collection the number of sunspots Since the time of Galileo there has been a solar cycle lasting approximately 11 years. This cycle is marked by a maximum and a minimum in the number of sunspots. Sunspots are considered an indicator of solar activity, and during periods of minimum the spots practically disappear.
The historical difficulty in modeling this cycle has been notable, especially in data collected between 1976 and 2008. However, Zharkova and her team managed to develop a model based on the existence of two self-exciting dynamos in the core of the sun, similar to those that generate the Earth's magnetic field.
A shocking fact is that, according to their predictions, we could face such a drastic reduction in the number of sunspots that it would bring us closer to an event similar to that Maunder minimum.
Consequences of the Maunder minimum
Between 1645 and 1715, sunspots virtually disappeared, leading to a decrease in solar activity. This period, known as the Maunder minimum, coincided with what has been called the Little Ice Age, characterized by extremely cold winters and cooler summers in Europe and North America.
Temperatures dropped to levels that caused the freezing of rivers major rivers such as the Thames in London and the Danube. During this time, frost affected crop development, leading to famine and serious economic problems in several regions.
This atmospheric phenomenon is also linked to other factors, such as volcanic activity, which contributed to global cooling by emitting volcanic aerosols into the atmosphere that reflected part of the solar radiation.
Although the possible repetition of the Maunder minimum has the scientific community in suspense, some experts suggest that, this time, the impact would be less severe due to additional factors.
Climate change and current predictions
One of the main differences between the 17th century and today is the impact of the global warming due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The NASA has already pointed out that, even if solar activity decreases during the 21st century, the level of GHG is six times greater than any cooling estimated by a solar minimum.
In simple terms, this means that a Grand Solar Minimum would only offset a few years of global warming. It is unlikely to reverse the ongoing process induced by the burning of fossil fuels.
The role of AMOC in global climate
In addition to solar activity, another factor to consider is the Atlantic Meridional Circulation Current (AMOC), which regulates global temperatures by moving warm water northwards in the Atlantic. Recent studies suggest that a collapse of this current could have drastic effects on the climate, increasing the possibility of colder winters in Europe.
However, there is no consensus in the scientific community on whether this will happen soon. Some models suggest that we could see a reduction in AMOC between 2030 and 2040, but there is no conclusive data.
How much will solar activity affect the climate in 2030?
Predictions like Zharkova's play into the possibility of localized cooling, especially in northern hemisphere latitudes, but overall global warming will remain the dominant factor. Even if solar activity is reduced, earth's atmosphere continues to accumulate gases that trap heat.
La NASA stresses that, although we are facing a Grand Solar Minimum similar to the Maunder minimum, we will not see a global glaciationRegional cooling would be minor compared to the global warming we experience today.
Despite predictions of cooling, global temperatures are expected to continue to rise, worsening phenomena such as heat waves, floods and droughts in many parts of the world.
As we approach 2030, it will be vital to continue analyzing and monitoring both solar activity and other climatic factors that could influence the future of our planet.
While a full-blown Ice Age is not expected, changes in solar activity and ocean currents could bring colder winters in certain regions, also causing uncertainty in sectors such as agriculture and energy.