The rise of coal in the world: present, impact and future

  • Coal remains the largest source of CO2 emissions globally.
  • China and India account for more than half of the world's coal consumption.
  • Although consumption peaked in 2023, a gradual decline is expected towards 2026.

Coal Consumption

El carbon, a widely used fossil energy source, remains key in the global energy matrix, despite growing efforts to reduce its environmental impact. Although many consider it a resource of the past, the reality is that its global consumption continues to increase, mainly thanks to emerging economies such as China and India. This energy demand pushes coal to occupy a central position in efforts to guarantee electricity and heat supply.

In the last decade, other energy sources such as oil and the gas natural have experienced fluctuations in their consumption levels. According to a report by enerdataSince 2008, coal has overtaken oil in many G20 countries. In 2008, coal accounted for about 27% of energy consumption, while oil accounted for 35%. However, by 2013, coal had increased its share to 34%, while oil consumption fell to 29%, and gas remained at around 20%. Despite this, coal remains the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

Impact of Coal on Global CO2 Emissions

The use of coal remains one of the main causes of increasing global emissions of CO2. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), between 60% and 67% of the growth in emissions since 2000 has been driven by the burning of coal for electricity and heat generation. Rising energy demand in countries such as China and India has driven these emissions, making coal a key driver of the climate crisis.

In 2023, global emissions reached record levels, which is alarming considering international agreements such as the Paris Agreement. Coal consumption by emerging economies is one of the main reasons behind this increase in emissions. For example, in China, more than 4.250 billion tons were burned in 2023 alone, accounting for more than 50% of global coal consumption.

Regional Differences in Coal Consumption

Coal consumption varies significantly between different regions of the world. While some countries such as the United States and several nations of Europe (Spain, Italy, Great Britain) have reduced their dependence on coal in favour of renewable sources and natural gas, others such as China, India and much of Southeast Asia have increased their consumption.

For example, coal use in the United States is expected to decline by around 20% in 2023, a trend also seen in other European countries. In contrast, economies such as China and India have continued to rely heavily on coal. In 2023, China accounted for over 54% of global consumption, driving an increase of 220 million tons, while India increased its reliance on coal by 8%, a clear reflection of the continued growth of its industry and electricity demand. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam increased its use by 25% during the same year.

Global Coal Consumption

Reasons for the Increase in Coal Use

Despite efforts to reduce dependence on coal, there are several factors that have driven its consumption in recent years. One of the main reasons is the energy instability generated as a result of global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in ukraineThe first generated a sudden increase in electricity demand due to the reactivation of economies, while the second caused a crisis in natural gas markets, leading many countries to return to coal as a cheaper alternative.

Another key factor has been the unreliability of renewable energy in countries with high climate volatility. In several regions of Asia, such as China and India, low hydroelectric production and problems in expanding clean energy capacity have forced the continued use of coal as the main source of electricity generation.

The Future of Coal

Despite growing environmental concerns, coal consumption looks set to continue to play a crucial role in electricity generation and industry. IEA The US has projected that coal consumption will reach its highest level in 2023, with more than 8.500 billion tons burned. The trend, however, points to a progressive reduction starting in 2024, as renewable energies begin to replace it.

In many developed countries, such as United States, Japan In the United States and major European nations, strong steps are being taken to reduce dependence on coal. The United States, for example, has set a goal of eliminating coal plants by 2035. Similarly, Japan, despite still being a large consumer, has announced that it will close some of its coal plants by the same date.

China and India, despite being the largest consumers, have also begun to invest significantly in renewable energyIn India, reliance on coal is expected to decline dramatically by the end of the decade, while China has announced plans to reduce its consumption as part of its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

Future of Coal Consumption

It is important to note that, although projections point to a decrease in coal use, its consumption will continue to be a relevant issue in the coming years. The transition will not be quick or easy, especially in developing countries where access to clean technologies is limited. However, with significant increases in renewable energy capacity and stricter regulations, it is possible to foresee a global decrease in the use of this energy source and, with it, a reduction in the emissions of gases that contribute to climate change.