COP29, the most important climate summit of 2024, has started in Baku, Azerbaijan. The event, organized under the umbrella of the United Nations, brings together representatives from 197 countries, with the main objective of Reaching an agreement on climate finance necessary to face the effects of climate change. This year, one of the central themes is How to distribute funds and who should put the money on the table, with special attention to the most vulnerable economies that suffer the consequences of global warming most directly.
The context of the summit is not the most favorable. 2024 is expected to be the warmest year in recorded history, surpassing the feared 1,5°C increase in global average temperature compared to pre-industrial levels. This threshold, which the Paris Agreement had identified as key to avoiding the most catastrophic effects of climate change, appears to be about to be surpassed.
The central role of climate finance
Climate finance is the hot topic in Baku. This summit has been dubbed the “COP of finance” because the discussions revolve around the New Quantified Collective Objective, which aims to increase contributions from developed countries to the most vulnerable. The agreement in force since 2015 currently promised to mobilize 100.000 billion dollars annually, but this limit has proven insufficient.
For COP29, The number is expected to increase significantlyAccording to the UN, developing countries will need $1,1 trillion each year from 2025 onwards, and the figure could rise to $1,8 trillion by 2030. The European Union is leading efforts in this area, hoping to establish itself as a key partner in the fight against climate change.
However, the debate does not end with raising the money. It is also crucial to determine How the funds will be managed and to which countries they will be allocatedNations in the global south are the most vocal in their calls for a fair distribution of resources, while powers such as the United States and Japan advocate involving private financing to reduce dependence on public funds.
Major absences in climate negotiations
This summit has begun with important absences which could affect the negotiations. Neither US President Joe Biden nor his newly elected successor Donald Trump attended. Instead of Biden, Washington's top climate adviser John Podesta is leading the US delegation. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, presidents of Russia and China, will also not be present, which adds uncertainty to any agreements that may be reached.
The absence of such influential leaders has raised concerns among key climate change stakeholders. There are fears that their lack of physical engagement could slow down the progress needed to secure a long-term solution. In contrast, leaders such as Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, will be present to contribute to the discussions, and are expected to play an active role in decision-making.
The challenge of keeping warming below 1,5°C
One of the biggest challenges for COP29 is to find a effective solution that can keep the increase in global temperatures below 1,5°CThe most recent reports from international organisations such as the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) already indicate that the planet will exceed this threshold in 2024. This fact, combined with the increasing frequency of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods and heat waves, makes the urgency of these agreements more palpable than ever.
However, Current policies are not sufficient. Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Climate Change, has stated that global warming continues to advance towards 3°C, which would be devastating for humanity and the planet. Faced with this situation, experts demand that the most polluting countries, including the absent powers, increase their climate commitments.
Concrete actions to avoid climate disasters
COP29 will also seek concrete agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through an increase in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). The most ambitious countries are called upon to present new climate action plans in view of the next summit, which will be held in Brazil.
In addition, COP29 will focus on the already discussed Loss and Damage Fund, designed to provide financial support to countries most affected by climate disasters. This fund, whose creation was approved at COP27, still has much to be defined in terms of operation and financing. The World Bank has been appointed as its temporary manager, although this decision has not been exempt from criticism, especially from nations in the global south that distrust the institution.
Finally, environmental organizations insist that The current rate of emissions reduction is insufficient. Although some countries, such as the European Union, have presented ambitious plans for 2050, the most recent UN reports indicate that, if drastic measures are not taken, the planet will face an increase of between 2,6 and 3,1 degrees by the end of the century. This will pose an imminent risk to millions of people and ecosystems.
COP29 in Baku will be decisive in the global fight against climate change, especially in a year when record temperatures and extreme weather events are expected. As countries negotiate their financial and emissions reduction commitments, the world is watching closely, aware that this summit could mark a turning point in humanity’s efforts to mitigate the devastating effects of global warming.