We're about to close out June, and the atmosphere at Spanish gas stations is one of genuine nervousness. With July 1st fast approaching, millions of drivers are wondering if filling up will still benefit from the current tax breaks or if, on the contrary, the start of the holidays will come with a hefty price hike. The decree that maintains the VAT on fuels at 10% It is about to expire and the Executive has not yet officially revealed what exactly will happen next Monday.
Despite this administrative silence, the Ministry of Economy, headed by Carlos Cuerpo, is already pulling strings to decide whether to maintain this lifeline during the summer quarter. The main intention is to avoid the dreaded rocket effect on pricesA sudden price increase that could spoil the summer for many, just as the mass exodus of summer holidays is taking place. The situation is delicate because, although the conflict in the Middle East seems to be offering intermittent respites, instability remains out there, threatening family finances.
The impact on your wallet if VAT returns to the standard rate
If the government ultimately decides not to take action, the impact on fuel prices will be immediate and quite painful. Various industry sources, including the Spanish Confederation of Service Stations, estimate that the price of gasoline and diesel could rise between 25 and 30 cents per liter overnight. This is due not only to the return of the VAT to 21%, but also to the possible reinstatement of the Special Tax on Hydrocarbons to its normal levels, which would send prices soaring at a time of extremely high demand.
To give you an idea of ​​what this means in everyday life, filling a standard 55-liter tank would go from costing just over 70 euros to nearly 90. In other words, every time we fill up the car, we'd have to spend around 15 or 16 euros extraWith diesel currently trading at slightly higher prices than gasoline at some points of sale, the fear that this fuel will once again break the two euro per liter barrier is a very real possibility in the industry's predictions.
The political labyrinth and the demands of Brussels
Securing an extension is no walk in the park for the government, as it needs parliamentary support in a Congress where every vote is hard-won. Parties like Junts and the PNV hold the key to approving the new decree, and negotiations are being carried out until the last minute to avoid any unpleasant surprises. Furthermore, the government has to perform a balancing act with the guidelines coming from Europewhere these widespread tax cuts are not viewed favorably because they consider them to be contrary to the energy transition and the new biofuels law and green policies.
The Bank of Spain has also weighed in on the matter, pointing out that our country is one of those that has mobilized the most public resources to curb the energy crisis. The main criticism is that these measures benefit everyone equally, without distinguishing between those who own a basic car and those who drive a luxury vehicle. Therefore, institutions like Gestha suggest that the appropriate course of action would be... focus the aid only for transporters, farmers and families with lower incomes so as not to unbalance public coffers more than necessary.
Professional sectors and savings alternatives
Meanwhile, the road transport sector is on high alert. Organizations like CETM have made it clear that excluding professionals from these measures would be a colossal mistake that would ultimately affect the entire logistics chain and, consequently, the prices of everyday goods. They are demanding that the [unspecified measures] be maintained. direct discounts of 20 cents per liter for professional diesel, a commitment they consider vital for the survival of many SMEs and self-employed people in the sector who already operate with very tight margins.
Given this uncertainty, some curious proposals have also emerged to try to reduce national oil consumption, such as the transition towards alternatives such as bioethanolSome experts suggest that encouraging teleworking again for at least three days a week could significantly lower the country's energy bill. Meanwhile, in cities like Malaga, consumption doesn't seem to be suffering too much thanks to... boost from summer tourismwhich is driving sales at service stations despite the fact that prices are not exactly a bargain.
The ball is now in the Council of Ministers' court, which will have to decide within hours whether to implement a gradual withdrawal of aid or opt for a three-month extension. The evolution of international markets seems to offer a slight respite with Brent crude stabilizing, but the reality is that the average citizen's wallet remains highly sensitive to any changes in taxation. We'll have to wait until Monday to see if the start of the holidays It comes with relief on gas station panels or if it's time to tighten your belt a little more this summer.
