The rapid expansion of the global fleet of electric vehicles It is beginning to make its mark on one of the pillars of the global economy: oil. By 2025, these battery-powered cars, vans, and buses will have prevented the consumption of around 1,7 million barrels of crude oil per day, according to the latest analysis by the Ember energy research center.
That volume of unburned oil is anything but anecdotal: it is equivalent to about 70% of Iran's exports through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the major bottlenecks in the global energy system. At a time marked by geopolitical tensions and volatile prices, the electric vehicle is emerging as an increasingly important buffer against future oil crises.
1,7 million fewer barrels per day: what does it really mean?
The central finding of the Ember report is clear: the electrification of road transport It has already succeeded in significantly reducing oil demand compared to what it would have been without electric cars. Those 1,7 million barrels per day avoided represent a considerable portion of the global market and serve as a benchmark for comparing the impact of the ongoing transition.
To put it into perspective, Ember equates this amount to Iran's crude oil exports, estimated at around 2,4 million barrels per day that traditionally transit the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, the global electric fleet already compensates for most of what Iran places on the international market in normal times.
In addition to these direct oil savings, the report emphasizes that electrification has a strong protective effect against further price increases. Without these avoided barrels, pressure on the international crude oil market would be greater, which could translate into even more expensive fuels for consumers and businesses. Europe and the rest of the world.
Ember recalls that for every increase of 10 dollars per barrelThe global energy import bill increases by around $160.000 billion annually. Reducing dependence on crude oil is therefore more than just a climate issue: it becomes a crucial economic tool.
Oil as a weak point in the world economy
The analysis identifies oil as the authentic “Achilles' heel of the global economy”The main reason is that the crude oil business is extremely concentrated in a few producing areas and strategic routes, while the vast majority of the population lives in countries that depend on imports.
Currently, around 79% of the world's population It resides in states that do not meet their oil needs with their own production. This makes them especially vulnerable to any event that disrupts supply: conflicts in producing regions, closures of key maritime routes, or even attacks on energy infrastructure using relatively inexpensive means, such as drones.
In this context, the Strait of Hormuz reappears, a maritime corridor through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil and a substantial portion of liquefied natural gas. The Gulf region accounts for approximately 29% of global crude oil supply, so any disruption there almost immediately translates into price shocks.
The current crisis in the Middle East has put the spotlight on the special exhibition of Asiawhich imports around 40% of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. For some analysts, this episode is a kind of “Ukraine moment” for the Asian continent, alluding to the energy shock that Europe suffered after the Russian invasion.
The report also points out that not even large producers are immune to volatility: United StatesDespite being one of the world's largest oil producers, the US has seen gasoline prices rise by more than 25% since the start of the current conflict, demonstrating that the market is globally determined and affects everyone.
The alternative: electrification and less dependence on crude oil.
Given this scenario, Ember points out that, unlike the oil crises of the 70s, today there is a mature technological alternative: the electrification of transport, accompanied by the deployment of renewable energies and heat pumps in buildings.
According to their calculations, replacing the imported oil used in the road transport switching to electric vehicles would allow for cuts a third of global fossil fuel importsIn economic terms, we would be talking about savings of approximately 600.000 million dollars per year for importing countries.
The report also broadens the perspective beyond the private car. If the electrification of transport were combined with the progressive replacement of heating systems based on gas or petroleum derivatives through efficient electrical systems, and if renewables were to replace thermal power plants that burn coal, gas and fuel oil, importers could reduce their costs by up to 70% of your fossil fuel bill.
In the words of one of the authors of the analysis, “the Power Plants They are becoming increasingly competitive with gasoline and diesel engines, and the volatility of oil makes them a logical choice for countries that want to protect themselves from future crises.”
Economic impact in Asia, Europe and other regions
The impact of electric vehicles is already being reflected in the accounts of many countries. With crude oil prices around $ 80 a barrel, China saves more than $ 28.000 million annually in oil imports thanks solely to its current electric fleet, according to Ember.
Europe is also beginning to feel this cushion, albeit on a smaller scale. The report places the European savings of around $8.000 billion per year in crude oil imports avoided by electric cars on the road. In a market as exposed as Europe, where fuel costs are quickly passed on to inflation, this reduction in energy bills is a significant factor.
India, for its part, registers savings close to $ 600 million annually, a more modest but relevant figure for an economy with strong growth in energy demand and still a low share of electric vehicle sales.
The other side of the coin is represented by countries of low incomes highly dependent on fossil fuelsIn economies like Namibia or the Democratic Republic of Congo, imports of oil and petroleum products can account for more than 15% of gross domestic product. In these cases, every increase in the price of oil has a disproportionate impact on public finances and the cost of living.
In the specific case of Europe, the crisis in the Middle East and the rise in Brent crude prices, which have exceeded $100 per barrel, have driven up the prices of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene. This situation has reignited the debate about the need to accelerate the transport electrification land transport and, in parallel, reduce dependence on oil in aviation and maritime transport.
Electric vehicle sales: a global shift underway
The reduction of 1,7 million barrels per day did not come out of nowhere: it is a response to a very rapid increase in electric vehicle sales in numerous regions. Ember counts 39 countries with an electric car sales share exceeding 10% in 2025, compared to just four countries in 2019.
Some emerging markets are among the most dynamic. Vietnam reached a share of around 38% of electric vehicles in new car sales, even surpassing the European Union. Thailand (21%) and Indonesia (15%) have also made remarkable progress, placing themselves above economies like the United States, where the share is around 10%.
In the European Union, the average sales share of electric vehicles is around 26%However, there are significant internal differences. Northern and central European countries show figures well above the average, while other states, such as SpainThey remain behind at around 9% market share, despite the potential for reducing fossil fuel imports.
In America, the situation is also mixed: Brazil is moving close to 9%, while Japan, a traditional automotive power, remains around 3%, even below India, which is around 4%.
The role of Europe and Spain in the new energy security
For Europe, hit hard by the gas price crisis following the invasion of Ukraine, the Ember report reinforces an idea that has already taken root in EU institutions: future energy security It involves reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and accelerating electrification.
Savings of approximately $8.000 billion annually in oil imports thanks to the electric vehicles driving on European roads This is still only a fraction of the estimated potential. Brussels sees the combination of electric cars, renewables, and heat pumps as an opportunity to mitigate both geopolitical risks and costs for households and businesses.
Spain's exposure to the fluctuations of the crude oil market is reflected in recent price trends: 95-octane gasoline has reached prices around 1,77 euros per literwhile diesel has exceeded the €1,9 per liter mark at certain peak times. The price increase of aviation keroseneWith increases of around 70% at the European level in the latest episodes of crisis, it adds pressure to a key sector for the Spanish economy such as tourism.
In this context, analysts agree that a largest electric fleet in Spain and in Europe This would have cushioned some of this impact, reducing the import bill and exposure to rising fuel prices.
Are we heading towards peak oil demand?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the global oil demand reaches its peak around 2029, with consumption not much higher than that recorded in 2025. Ember suggests that the combination of geopolitical conflicts and technological advancement could bring forward that turning point.
The logic is simple: every new electric vehicle added to the road reduces gasoline or diesel consumption over its entire lifespan. If the current sales rate is maintained, or even accelerated, the demand curve for crude oil for road transport could flatten sooner than expected and begin a structural decline.
For importing countries, this scenario opens a window of opportunity. rapid transition to electrificationSupported by domestic renewables, it would not only contribute to meeting climate objectives, but would also allow for a significant reduction in energy bills and exposure to external shocks.
The Ember report also raises a fundamental question: whether the current crisis will further accelerate peak oil demand or whether, on the contrary, some countries will choose to maintain their commitment to fossil fuels despite the risks. Recent experience in Europe and now Asia seems to tip the scales toward the former.
Everything points to the savings of 1,7 million barrels of oil per day The goal set for the global electric vehicle fleet by 2025 is just the first step in a more profound shift. As more countries embrace electric mobility and strengthen their renewable energy generation, dependence on imported crude oil will decrease, with direct implications for energy security, price stability, and the ability of economies—including Spain's and Europe's—to weather future crises without repeating past shocks.