The summer of 2026 is leaving a desolate scene across much of Europe. The wildfires that have ravaged large areas of central Spain and southwestern France are neither a coincidence nor a whim of nature. A new attribution report by the international group World Weather Attribution (WWA) has quantified what many suspected: climate change is accelerating its effects in Spain , making the conditions that fueled the fires far more likely than in a world without global warming.
Researchers have been warning for years that every tenth of a degree counts, and this summer we are seeing it firsthand. The combination of wet winters, dry springs, and early heat waves is creating a perfect storm for any spark to ignite a catastrophe. The analysis, published this Friday, is conclusive: in central Spain, the extreme weather conditions that fueled the fires are now at least 20 times more likely than in the pre-industrial era. In southwestern France, the probability doubles.
A world 1,4 degrees warmer
The WWA team, coordinated by climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London, used the Daily Severity Index (DSR), a tool that combines temperature, humidity, wind, and vegetation dryness to estimate fire risk. After analyzing the seven-day period with the highest index in each affected region and comparing it with simulations of a climate without anthropogenic warming, the conclusion is clear: climate change has made what was once exceptional commonplace.
David GarcÃa-GarcÃa, professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Alicante and one of the authors of the study, explains that in a world 1,4 degrees cooler—that is, without the greenhouse gas emissions accumulated since the Industrial Revolution—phenomena like the one in central Spain would occur at least once every 120 years. Now, in the current climate, they are predicted to occur once every six years . The numbers speak for themselves.
Scientists insist that these are conservative estimates. Observations from recent decades show a clear trend toward an increase in the probability and severity of these types of events. And what is happening on the Iberian Peninsula and the French Atlantic coast is just a preview of what could come if decisive measures are not taken to reduce emissions.
The lethal cocktail: wet winter, dry spring
One of the most striking aspects of the report is its description of the weather sequence that led to this situation. Last winter was particularly rainy in both regions, which favored the growth of lush vegetation. But then came a dry and unusually warm spring that depleted the soil moisture. This combination is lethal: the biomass that grows with the rains becomes perfect fuel when the heat and drought arrive.
Native vegetation, including shrubs and pines, suffered severe water stress, which increased its flammability. Grasses and other fine fuels dried out completely, creating ideal conditions for ignition and rapid fire spread. The weeks leading up to the fires were marked by a succession of extreme heat waves and scant rainfall across much of Western Europe, even though it was still relatively early in the season.
Recent studies had already shown that climate change was foreshadowing these hot and dry conditions. Now, this analysis confirms that the burning of coal, oil, and gas is the ultimate cause of the fires being so virulent . Friederike Otto herself sums it up bluntly: "We are witnessing yet another disaster caused by the same factor: the burning of fossil fuels."
More pollution and more risk to the population
Wildfires not only destroy forests and homes, but also release enormous quantities of pollutants into the atmosphere, directly impacting human health. In France, the concentration of particulate matter near Bordeaux exceeded the acceptable air quality level by a factor of 20. The fact that wildfires are releasing more pollutants than anticipated has forced authorities to mobilize the national strategic reserve of FFP2 masks.
This pollution adds to the effects of heat waves that are already severely impacting the population. The European Mortality Monitor, the European body that monitors mortality, estimates that the June 2026 heat wave caused more than 10.000 excess deaths in Europe, with over 5.700 fatalities in France alone . High temperatures are by far the deadliest climate risk, and experts estimate they are already killing hundreds of thousands of people worldwide each year.
The case of the Asian hornet, which is expanding its presence in Spain due to milder winters, is another example of how global warming alters ecosystems and affects daily life. The Spanish Society of Allergology and Clinical Immunology (SEAIC) warns that the activity season for these insects is lengthening, increasing the chances of exposure to their stings and raising the risk of allergic reactions. This is not an isolated phenomenon: scientists point out that the Northern Hemisphere is warming at almost twice the rate of the Southern Hemisphere , which explains why Europe is in the spotlight.
An urgent call to action
The international scientific community has been saying for years that there is no time to lose. Julie Arrighi, Program Director at the Red Cross Climate Centre, emphasizes that "we must accelerate the implementation of adaptation and fire prevention measures, while also strengthening investment in response capacity." The succession of climate risks we are experiencing this summer is a wake-up call about the challenges ahead and an impetus to adopt ambitious climate action.
The UN Executive Secretary for Climate Change, Simon Stiell, insists that "humanity's continued burning of colossal amounts of coal, oil, and gas is warming our planet, making these conditions increasingly dangerous and these megafires more deadly and destructive." Scientists don't want to be alarmist, but the data is undeniable.
This same team of researchers had already confirmed that climate change exacerbated forest fires on the Iberian Peninsula. Other analyses of the fire season reached similar conclusions. The trend is unequivocal: each summer, the fires are larger, more intense, and more difficult to control.
Experts also point out that, beyond mitigation, it is necessary to adapt to the new reality. The energy transition is progressing, although at a pace many consider insufficient. Meanwhile, the effects of global warming continue to be felt in the form of fires, droughts, floods, and heat waves. There is no "new normal" to get used to, but rather a continuous worsening of the situation if decisive action is not taken to stabilize the climate and halt the use of fossil fuels.