La possibility of fuel rationing in Europe It has gone from being a remote scenario to an option that EU institutions are now taking very seriously. The combination of war in the Middle East, partial blockade of key routes, and high volatility in energy markets has led the European Union (EU) to draw up contingency plans in case the situation worsens.
In this context, the European Commission is studying exceptional measures ranging from limiting the use of critical fuels to releasing more oil from strategic reservesAlthough the official message insists that there is no immediate supply crisis yet, Brussels openly acknowledges that it is preparing for "prolonged" and entirely possible scenarios.
Brussels admits it is preparing for "the worst-case scenarios"
The European Commissioner for Energy, Dan JorgensenHe has clearly outlined the concerns circulating in European capitals. In several interviews with the international press, the EU official has admitted that the EU is studying "all options" to guarantee energy supply in the coming months, including the rationing of certain fuels.
According to Jørgensen, the analysis being used in Brussels is that it is "a prolonged situation" in which energy prices will remain at high levels for quite some timeAlthough he insists that Europe is "not yet" in a supply security crisis, he does warn that governments must "make sure they have what they need" and anticipate the problem before it erupts.
The commissioner emphasizes that for now, the most forceful measures are being considered. just as a precaution"We are preparing for the worst-case scenarios, but we have not yet reached the point of having to ration critical products such as kerosene or diesel," he said, emphasizing that "it is better to be prepared than to regret it."
In parallel, the Commission is working on an action package to curb, as far as possible, the price escalation and the structural impact of the energy crisis on the European economyThe goal is to prevent a problem that is currently temporary from resulting in lasting damage to industry, transportation, and households.
War in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: the origin of the problem
The trigger for this climate of tension is the open conflict in the Middle Eastwith a direct confrontation involving the United States and Israel against Iran. The geopolitical dimension of the clash has gone far beyond the military sphere and has severely impacted the global energy system.
One of the most visible consequences has been the de facto closure of the Strait of HormuzThe Strait of Gibraltar, a maritime passage controlled by Tehran, handled approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil shipments. For markets like those in Asia, dependence on this route was even greater, ultimately straining prices and supply flows across all continents.
In the early stages of the war, the barrel of Brent crude, the benchmark for Europe, reached almost $120Since then, prices have moderated slightly and are moving around $107-109, but the word that is repeated most often in the markets is volatility: any news about the conflict or the negotiations for a hypothetical truce translates into sharp movements in a matter of hours.
The uncertainty is compounded by conflicting messages from key international playersFrom Washington's statements about the duration of the conflict to the contradictory signals regarding Iran's willingness to agree to a ceasefire, all of this fuels fears that supplies could be compromised if the crisis lasts longer than initially anticipated.
Which fuels could be rationed and who would be affected
For now, Brussels is focusing its concern on Two particularly sensitive products: diesel and keroseneThese are fuels with a huge impact on the European economy: the first powers a large part of road transport and logistics, while the second is vital for commercial and cargo aviation.
The European Commission admits that, in a clearly worsening scenario, does not rule out setting limits on the consumption or refueling of these fuelsThe priority, at that point, would be to keep essential services running: public transport, food and medicine supply chains, emergency services, agricultural activities and, ultimately, certain key industrial sectors.
Examples of such measures have already been seen in other countries around the world, including blackouts and restrictions. States with greater energy vulnerability have limited the amount of fuel each driver can refuel. On a daily or weekly basis, they have set priorities for transporters and farmers or have restricted the use of private vehicles on certain days.
In the European case, airlines are among the most concerned sectors. The possibility of kerosene shortage This adds to the regulatory differences between the EU and the United States regarding the technical specifications of aviation fuel. For the moment, Brussels has not altered the current regulations, but has left the door open to changes if the crisis worsens.
Strategic reserves and the role of the International Energy Agency
Before resorting to widespread rationing, the Commission is considering a key tool: the additional release of strategic oil reservesThe OECD countries, coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA), recently resorted to these reserves in an operation described as historic.
Jørgensen does not rule out a repeat of this type of action if tensions in the crude oil market worsen. The idea would be to inject more supply on a timely basis to alleviate prices and ensure supply in the most delicate moments, even at the cost of temporarily reducing the safety net.
Meanwhile, Brussels is maintaining its roadmap for diversify gas and oil suppliersThe Commission insists that, if necessary, it can increase imports from the United States and other partners to compensate for any cuts from more unstable regions.
However, the European Commission does not currently foresee modifying the regulatory framework governing the entry of liquefied natural gas from RussiaThis has been a particularly sensitive issue since the start of the war in Ukraine. The immediate priority is to avoid a supply shock while maintaining the established energy transition goals.
Measures to save on mobility and consumption before rationing
While designing contingency plans, the European Commission has sent member states a series of energy saving recommendations designed to reduce kerosene and diesel consumption without resorting to mandatory rationing.
The proposals include Promote teleworking where possible, reduce speed limits on highways by at least 10 km/h and to give more weight to public transport over private vehicles. It also encourages promoting carpooling, improving efficient driving habits, and avoiding air travel when reasonable train alternatives exist, especially for medium-distance journeys.
Some countries have already begun to explore specific restrictions on fuel consumption or accumulation To prevent panic buying, limits on liters per fill-up or weekly caps have been implemented in certain European jurisdictions, always with the argument of ensuring that gasoline and diesel reach everyone.
In other regions of the world, with less refining capacity or greater dependence on imported crude, the measures have gone further: partial closures of gas stations, rationing systems based on license plate numbers or bans on fuel exports to prioritize domestic consumption. All of this serves as a reference for the type of decisions that could be made if the crisis were to take an even more negative turn.
Impact on Spain: no rationing, but with unstable prices
In the Spanish case, experts rule out that direct limits on refueling with gasoline or diesel will be imposed in the short term similar to those already implemented in other countries. Spain has one of the largest refining capacities in Europe, allowing it to meet its own demand and also export fuels to other markets in the region.
This does not mean, however, that Spain is immune to the crisis. The price of crude oil is set in a global market, and when it rises abroad, the effect eventually reaches service stations nationwide. Spanish drivers have already noticed weeks of sharp price fluctuations., coinciding with the moments of greatest international tension.
To lessen the impact on people's wallets, the Government has opted to reduce the tax burden on fuelsAmong the measures implemented are the reduction of VAT from 21% to 10% and the lowering of the Hydrocarbons Tax to the minimum allowed by European regulations. These decisions have helped to partially contain price increases at the pump, although consumer associations maintain that the relief is limited compared to the magnitude of the crisis.
The analysts consulted insist that, in the current scenario, Drivers will most likely continue to face high price volatility. rather than problems finding fuel. The general recommendation is to avoid compulsive buying and hoarding, as this behavior can create additional tension even without a real shortage in the short term.
A crisis that goes beyond cars: aviation, industry and the European economy
The debate about fuel rationing isn't limited to what we pay when we fill up our car's tank. Commercial aviation is among the most exposed sectors, due to its absolute dependence on kerosene and because it operates in an environment already pressured by environmental regulations and increasing costs.
Airlines are closely monitoring every move by the European Commission, worried about the possibility that kerosene restrictions or accelerated regulatory changes This could further increase flight costs or limit service on certain routes. If supply problems arise, the priority would be to secure links considered strategic, leaving less essential routes as a secondary concern.
European industry is not immune to the problem either. Sectors that depend on heavy transport, of raw materials whose cost is closely linked to the price of energy Companies with fossil fuel-intensive processes are seeing their profit margins shrink with each rise in Brent crude. The risk of relocation or loss of competitiveness is one of the biggest fears in Brussels.
In financial markets, the energy crisis stemming from the war in Iran has also been reflected in industrial metals and other assetsThe combination of a strong dollar, recession fears, and high energy costs has led to intense price movements, with weeks of rapid increases followed by sharp corrections in response to any change in expectations regarding the conflict.
Given this entire scenario, the European Union is trying to walk a fine line: on the one hand, to send a message of reassurance about the current supply On the one hand, Spain aims to prevent panic among consumers and businesses; on the other, it openly acknowledges that it is preparing for a scenario in which fuel rationing, especially for diesel and kerosene, could cease to be a theoretical hypothesis and become a real crisis management tool. For countries like Spain, high refining capacity reduces the risk of shortages, but not the price fluctuations in gasoline and diesel, which will remain closely linked to events in the Middle East and the decisions made in Brussels in the coming months.
