Spain ended 2025 with a slight, but significant, a 0,6% increase in its greenhouse gas emissionsto around 270 million tons of CO2 equivalent. The increase comes after several years of ups and downs and confirms that the country still has not found a clear and sustained path to emissions reduction.
In spite of advances in renewable energy, the provisional figures compiled by the Sustainability Observatory (OS) show that the cumulative reduction compared to 1990 barely reaches 5,8%, a very wide gap compared to the target of a 32% reduction by 2030 as outlined in the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). In other words, the current pace is far below what the climate emergency demands and what Spain has committed to within the European Union.
An emissions balance that doesn't align with climate goals
The data handled by the OS places 2025 emissions at around 270,04 million tons of CO2 equivalent, compared to the 286,7 million recorded in 1990 and the 436,3 million in 2005. Compared to the latter year, the decrease is 38,1%, but the focus of Brussels and the PNIEC is on the base year 1990, and there the evolution falls short.
According to experts from the Observatory, achieving the PNIEC objective would require a annual reduction rate close to 5% or even 7% continuously until 2030. Instead, the trajectory of the last decade has been erratic: after declines in 2018, 2019 and the exceptional year of 2020, emissions rebounded in 2021 and 2022, fell in 2023, stagnated in 2024 and have rises slightly again in 2025.
The OS report describes these results as “disappointing” in relation to European commitments and the climate emergency scenario. In his opinion, Spain is moving further away, year after year, from the path compatible with the Paris Agreement. despite the official rhetoric on climate change.
The authors also point out that official figures do not yet systematically incorporate several relevant sources of emissionsThis makes the actual situation even more delicate than standard inventories reflect.
The great April blackout and the shift towards natural gas
One of the central elements of the report is the so-called “Great Blackout” at the end of April 2025Described as the biggest power outage in Europe in decades, this incident triggered an abrupt change in the management of the Iberian Peninsula's electricity system and marked a turning point in the use of fossil fuels.
Following the blackout, the response from the regulator and the system operator was focused on Strengthen security of supply through combined cycle natural gas plantsThis was detrimental to the integration of wind and solar photovoltaic energy. The result was a significant increase in emissions from the electricity sector and a rise in electricity prices.
The Sustainability Observatory estimates the increase in emissions from the energy sector by 2,4 million tons, which is 9% more than in 2024. Within this group, the electricity sector is the most affected: its emissions reached around 29,5 million tons of CO2 equivalent, also 9% above the previous year.
Combined cycle natural gas plants are the main driver of this rebound. According to the report, Emissions associated with these power plants grew by 26%.with an additional 3,7 million tons. In terms of consumption, it is estimated that natural gas use in the peninsular system increased by around 38% after the blackout, while Large volumes of already generated renewable energy were being wasted. that could not be uploaded to the network.
Several experts involved in the study, such as the economist José SantamartaThey speak of “erratic measures” by the operator and the regulator, who have opted to “burn more gas” instead of deploying more sophisticated technical solutions that would allow them to take advantage of available wind and photovoltaic production.
Renewables on the rise, but underutilized and without enough storage
Paradoxically, 2025 was also a year of growth of solar photovoltaic generationwhich increased by 12% and consolidated this technology among the leading sources of Spain's electricity mix. Wind and hydropower, meanwhile, declined by 4%, while nuclear fell by 1% and cogeneration by 6%.
With provisional data, wind energy He once again led the generation structure with around 22% of total production, followed by nuclear and photovoltaic, both with shares close to 19%. Combined cycle plants accounted for around 17%, while hydropower was around 12% and cogeneration close to 6%. The push for renewables This explains a good part of this transformation of the mix.
Coal, on the other hand, definitively confirmed its marginal role in the Spanish energy system. Its use fell by more than 50% compared to 2024, now representing around 0,6% of electricity generationa far cry from the weight it held just a decade ago. In terms of primary energy consumption, it is estimated that Coal fell by 12%. during 2025.
Although the renewable energy share in the energy mix has reached around 56% according to estimates from Red Eléctrica, the OS report insists on the high level of underutilization of wind and photovoltaic energy during the year. The lack of sufficient storage systems —batteries and pumped storage plants— and an inflexible grid management would have forced the "wasting" of some of the clean production during periods of high generation.
The available storage technologies would have allowed the integration of around 9,4 TWh of energy into the system, a figure that the Observatory considers still insufficient to absorb all the current renewable potential and that which is expected in the coming years if the deployment of solar and wind installations is accelerated.
More oil and more road transport: the Achilles' heel
The other major factor explaining the increase in emissions in 2025 is the increased consumption of petroleum productsparticularly in transportation. Through October, oil use measured in ktoe rose by about 1%, while natural gas grew by around 5%. The prominence of road transport It remains one of the key factors.
By fuel type, the report highlights the gasoline price increase of 8%Diesel fuel rose by 3% and kerosene (used almost exclusively in aviation) by 5%. Other derivatives such as lubricants, asphalt, and coke also grew by around 5%, while liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) plummeted by 13%.
Road transport, both of goods and passengers, continued to gain weight in 2025 and consolidated its role as one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonize. Freight rail barely reaches a market share of approximately 4%, leaving trucks as the almost hegemonic actor in the movement of goods within the country.
The penetration of electric vehicle It remains very limited, especially when compared to powers like China. Without a much greater push for electric mobility and the transfer of freight to rail, Demand for diesel and gasoline continues to grow and, with it, the associated emissions.
Overall primary energy consumption increased by around 2% in 2025, driven by the rebound in gas and oil consumption. This occurred against a backdrop of GDP growth of approximately 2,9%, which, according to the Observatory, demonstrates the difficulty of to decouple economic growth from the intensive use of fossil fuels with current policies.
Mass tourism, aviation and emissions outside the official radar
The year 2025 broke records in the tourism sector. Spain received nearly 100 million visitorswhich generated more than €126.000 billion in spending by the end of November, easily surpassing the total for 2024. This economic dynamism, however, has a strong climate impact, especially through aviation and associated maritime transport.
The OS report notes that the emissions generated by international flights And emissions from maritime traffic—the so-called “international bunkers”—are not adequately accounted for in the current inventory system. If these sources were included, Spain’s emissions balance in 2025 would be significantly higher. The role of maritime transport is especially relevant at this point.
Experts point out that the combination of mass tourism, dependence on air transport, and lack of decisive measures to reduce the sector's carbon footprint This is turning tourism into one of the key factors in the stagnation of decarbonization.
Furthermore, the heavy presence of fossil fuels at every link in the tourism chain—travel, accommodation, services— It complicates the transition to a low-carbon model if profound and coordinated reforms are not undertaken between administrations and companies.
The Observatory warns that public policies remain contradictory in many cases: strategies are promoted to increase the number of flights and tourists, while ambitious emissions reduction targets are proclaimed that, In practice, they are difficult to reconcile with this growth model.
Fires, extreme weather events and a year marked by the climate
The report underlines that 2025 was a year “critical” from a climate point of view For Spain, a succession of extreme weather events left their mark across the country. Long and repeated heat waves raised temperatures to unprecedented levels in many areas, increasing the risk of wildfires and impacting energy consumption.
According to data from the European Copernicus program, in 2025 Approximately 400.000 hectares of forest land burned. In Spain, the fires released nearly 19 million tons of CO2 equivalent into the air, a figure approximately four times higher than in previous years.
These emissions, although not always included in inventories in the same way as those derived from fossil fuels, They have a significant impact on the climate balance of the country and highlight the fragility of ecosystems in the face of global warming.
The year was also marked by episodes of torrential rain and flooding in various parts of the peninsula, affecting infrastructure, housing, and economic activities. The Observatory interprets this series of events as a clear demonstration of how Spanish citizens are already experiencing the effects of climate change in their daily lives.
The coincidence of a spike in emissions with a year full of climate impacts fuels the concern of experts, who believe that the institutional response remains insufficient given the magnitude of the problem.
Energy poverty, housing and the slowdown in self-consumption
Beyond the big numbers of the energy system, the report focuses on the social consequences of the incomplete transitionThe residential sector continues to suffer from significant deficits in terms of energy efficiency and housing rehabilitation, resulting in high rates of energy poverty.
The increase in housing and energy prices has pushed a growing number of households into situations where It is difficult to keep the house at a suitable temperature. or cope with energy bills. Spain is among the EU countries with the most worrying indicators in this area.
The Observatory criticizes the fact that a much more ambitious program for the deep rehabilitation of the housing stock has not been put in place, one capable of reducing energy demand and improving the comfort of homes. The lack of decisive support These actions, they point out, hinder both climate goals and improvements in social welfare.
In parallel, the deployment of photovoltaic self-consumption on rooftops —especially in the residential sector— has been hampered by complex procedures and a certain slowdown in new installations. Energy communities, called upon to play a key role in the democratization of energy, still face a bureaucracy described as “endless” by the authors of the report.
The international comparison is illustrative: countries like Australia, California (USA) or Germany have accumulated tens of gigawatts of self-consumption on rooftops, while Spain, with a much more favorable solar resource, barely exceeds nine gigawatts installed in this segment, according to figures collected by the OS.
Data centers and new pressures on electricity demand
Another of the alerts issued by the Observatory refers to projected growth of data centers In Spain, especially in regions like Aragon, these large-scale digital infrastructures will require a very high amount of electricity, putting even more pressure on the electrical grid in the coming years.
The director of the OS, the ecologist Fernando Prieto, fears that, if no significant changes are introduced, The increased demand will be largely met with natural gas.perpetuating dependence on this fuel and increasing both emissions and the price of electricity.
According to Prieto, Spain is not decarbonizing at the rate it should be, which would be at a annual decrease in emissions of around 7%In his opinion, there are essential structural reforms—from the reorganization of the electricity market to the mass electrification of transport— that continue to be postponed.
The report also points to contradictory public policiesWhile climate strategies and carbon neutrality targets are being presented, plans that promote aviation or road transport are being maintained or even expanded, making it difficult to meet European reduction targets for diffuse sectors and those subject to the European Carbon Market (ETS).
In this context, European forecasts for Spain are demanding: a 26% reduction in emissions from diffuse sectors and the 43% in the ETS sectors compared to 2005Current trends, the Observatory warns, do not indicate that these goals will be achieved without a change of course.
Political pressure and criticism of the government's tepid response
The conclusions of the OS report have resonated in the political sphere. From environmental groups, such as Green AllianceThe government has been criticized for a “tepidity” and “negligence” in climate matters, emphasizing that, in the face of the climate crisis, not moving forward is tantamount to going backward.
Its federal coordinator, Juantxo López de UraldeHe argues that the 0,6% increase in emissions by 2025 reflects an "abandonment" of the centrality of green policies on the government agenda. In his view, during the previous legislature, some measures were pushed through with difficulty, but now he perceives "absolute complacency."
From this political space, the following is demanded more ambition and courage To address decarbonization, starting with transport and continuing with a decisive divestment from fossil fuels. They believe that continuing to finance this type of infrastructure and activities perpetuates a model that It contributes directly to the worsening of climate change.
The criticisms are also framed within an international context of reactionary wave and rise of climate denialismWith figures like Trumpism as a point of reference and a European Union perceived as less firm than in previous periods in its traditional environmental leadership, environmentalists believe this environment should not serve as an excuse to lower their domestic ambitions.
The Sustainability Observatory, for its part, maintains a more technical tone, but agrees with the idea that the country It is moving away from the established goals. and that current policies are not enough to redirect the emissions trajectory in the available time.
With the provisional closing date of 2025, the Observatory's data paints a picture in which Spain has slightly increased its emissions to around 270 million tons of CO2 equivalent, has reinforced its use of natural gas and oil, has failed to take advantage of some of its renewable energy potential, and remains far from the 32% reduction committed to by 2030 compared to 1990 levels; the challenge now lies in transforming this diagnosis into concrete and sustained measures that will finally allow, aligning the country's energy and economic reality with its climate commitments.
