The current Spain's olive oil campaign will end with less production than expected just a few months ago. Official data confirms that the total volume of oil produced will fall short of initial forecasts, in a context marked by a challenging winter in the main olive-growing regions.
According to the latest report published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, olive oil production for the 2025/2026 season will be around 1,29 million tons, representing a decrease of 9%. This represents a decrease compared to the previous season and an additional 6% reduction from the estimate released in October. Even so, the flow of olive oil to the market remains very strong and is reducing stock levels.
Final campaign figures and revised estimates
The Ministry places the final olive oil production around 1,29 million tonsThis figure falls short of the 1,37 million barrels projected at the start of the campaign and is also slightly lower than the previous year's total. These data are part of the Olive Oil Sector Market Report, updated with figures up to March.
Given the olive tree cycle, with most of the harvest concentrated in the winter months, the Ministry of Agriculture considers that The campaign is practically over. with the information available up to March. Therefore, the margin of variation with respect to the calculated 1,29 million tons is already very limited.
Initial forecasts, based on estimates submitted by the autonomous communities, pointed to a production similar to that of the previous season, in the region of 1,37 million tons of oilHowever, the weather patterns between December and February forced a downward revision of those figures.
At the European level, this downward correction in Spain, the EU's main producer, contributes to a tighter supply scenario in the community market as a whole, although the behavior of the other Mediterranean countries also influences the final balance.
Impact of weather: rain, wind and damage to the fruit
The Ministry identifies the adverse weather conditions as the determining factor This drop in production is due to the fact that between December and February, much of Spain's olive-growing regions suffered episodes of persistent rain and strong gusts of wind that disrupted the work schedule in the fields.
The succession of storms caused significant delays in the olive harvestespecially in areas with a higher density of olive groves. These changes in the pace of the harvest, coupled with accessibility problems to the farms due to excess water, forced a longer harvest than usual.
In certain regions, producers and cooperatives have indicated that the bad weather caused direct damage to the fruitwith olives battered by the wind or affected by humidity, which resulted in a lower amount of oil obtained per ton harvested.
Andalusia, which continues to be by far the most popular. the main producing region of olive oil from SpainIt has also been one of the areas most affected by the heavy rains and winter floods. This situation has impacted performance and planning in key provinces such as Jaén, Córdoba, and Seville.
Castilla-La Mancha, another autonomous community with a growing presence in the sector, has been hampered by a different problem but one equally linked to the climate: the previous spring rains made it difficult proper flowering of the olive treesThis poor flowering resulted in less fruit set and, consequently, a shorter harvest than expected.
Jaén and the large olive-growing areas, under pressure
The province of Jaén, a world leader in olive oil production, is one of the territories where The gap between official forecasts and reality has become more evidentAccording to data handled by agricultural organizations, the volume of oil finally obtained has clearly fallen short of what the forecasts indicated.
Up to March 31, approximately [number missing] cases had been recorded in Jaén 384.286 tons of oilThis represents a 19% decrease compared to the estimate provided by the Andalusian Regional Government, which projected 475.000 tons. This difference of almost 100.000 tons reflects the impact of the weather and the difficulties encountered in the fields throughout the season.
Industry experts warn that, with a high rate of product launches and lower-than-expected production, The wineries could be practically empty by OctoberEstimates suggest that stock levels would be at one of the lowest points in recent years.
This situation not only worries farmers in the province, but also generates uncertainty among cooperatives, olive mills, and commercial operators, who They should plan the next campaign with a reduced oil buffer. and a still very active domestic and foreign market.
Meanwhile, other olive-growing areas in Andalusia and the rest of Spain have suffered similar declines, although with varying intensity depending on the region and type of plantation, reinforcing the idea of ​​a season marked by... territorial inequality in outcomes.
Very dynamic marketing and decreasing stock levels
Despite the production cut, the Ministry emphasizes that the The pace of sales has been very positive throughout the campaignThe domestic market and exports have continued to absorb large volumes of oil, with no signs of a significant slowdown in demand.
So far this campaign, domestic consumption has increased around 505.000 tons of olive oilWhile foreign sales They have totaled around 1,04 million tons. This combination of strong domestic demand and good export performance has sustained the flow of product from the warehouses.
Agricultural organizations point out that, at the midpoint of the campaign, The sector had already put some 746.000 tons on the market, which would be approximately 60% of the total produced and represents a slight increase compared to the same time last year.
With this sales pace and a significantly shorter harvest, the Total olive oil stocks are decreasingAt the end of March, they stood at around 940.000 tons, distributed among cooperatives and olive oil mills, packers and operators, refineries and the Communal Olive Grove Heritage.
Estimates from the Ministry and the sector itself indicate that Stocks at the close of the campaign will be clearly below of those from the previous campaign, thus narrowing the margin of maneuver in the face of the start of the next harvest and conditioning the future evolution of prices.
Prices at origin and profitability of the olive grove
Combining lower production, high marketing and reduced stock levels has reopened the debate on the formation of prices at the source and the profitability of farms, especially in traditional olive groves, with higher costs and less mechanization.
Representatives of agricultural organizations maintain that, according to the logic of supply and demand, A scenario of less available oil should translate into higher prices for the producer. However, they point out that this market reaction is not occurring with the intensity that might be expected.
In some producing areas, it is reported that the Prices at the source are around 4 euros per kilolevels that they consider insufficient to cover production costs in the more traditional olive grove, where the profit margin is narrower and investment capacity is more limited.
Industry organizations are demanding that a guarantee be provided minimum price that allows covering expenses and maintaining the activityRemembering that behind every liter of oil there are thousands of family farms that depend directly on this source of income and that support a large part of the rural economic fabric.
At the same time, producers insist that the current campaign demonstrates the capacity of the Spanish olive sector to supply the market even in a context of somewhat shorter production, and they trust that the value of the product will be more clearly reflected in the quotes they receive at the olive mill.
The balance left by official data and figures from the sector itself paints a picture of a campaign marked by a 9% decrease in olive oil production Compared to the previous year, the decline is primarily due to a challenging winter in olive-growing regions, but also to a market that continues to show strong sales growth. With stocks trending downwards and a tighter supply environment in Europe, the focus now shifts to farmgate prices and the sector's ability to maintain farm profitability in a scenario where olive oil remains a highly sought-after product both within and outside of Spain.
