The escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact of the war in Ukraine have brought this issue back to the forefront. the vulnerability of an energy system based on gas, oil and coalFuel prices are soaring, the threat of supply cuts looms over Europe, and the cost of climate change is multiplying, placing Spain in an increasingly unstable scenario.
In this context, Greenpeace has put forward a comprehensive proposal: a plan for Spain and Portugal to move beyond fossil fuels and achieve net zero energy emissions in 2040ten years ahead of the timetable set by the European Union. The environmental organization maintains that this transformation is not only technically feasible, but also cheaper and more socially just than continuing as before.
A roadmap to wean ourselves off fossil fuels
The document presented by the organization, entitled "Energy for a better life: Roadmap for sufficient, efficient and 100% renewable energy by 2040 in the Iberian Peninsula"This study, developed in collaboration with the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS-ISF), is a technical analysis of the energy systems of Spain and Portugal. It proposes ways to transform these systems so they are no longer dependent on fossil fuels and are influenced by the geopolitical context.
According to the report's conclusions, Spain and Portugal can reduce their energy-related CO2 emissions by 99% by 2040, maintaining a secure supply 24 hours a day, all year roundwithout resorting to nuclear energy or carbon capture and storage systems. In parallel, the transition would allow for the phasing out of coal by 2030, the closure of nuclear power plants by 2035, and the elimination of gas and oil by 2040.
Greenpeace frames this roadmap as a "Proposal for survival and dignity" For citizens, this would improve their quality of life and strengthen energy sovereignty. However, for countries that do not produce fossil fuels, such as Spain and Portugal, the organization warns that remaining tied to gas and oil implies continue fueling armed conflicts and lose the ability to make one's own decisions.
The report was presented just before the Santa Marta Summit in Colombiawhere at least 45 governments will debate a global plan to phase out fossil fuels. Greenpeace is calling on Spain to attend this meeting with a firm commitment to lead this transition internationally.
The three pillars: sufficiency, efficiency and 100% renewables
Greenpeace's proposal can be summarized in a recipe with Three main ingredients: sufficiency, efficiency, and a 100% renewable energy systemFar from simply replacing fossil fuels with green electricity, it proposes a profound change in the energy model and how resources are used.
La energy sufficiency This is the report's key concept. It involves questioning which energy services are truly necessary, for what purpose, and for whom, and reducing what is considered superfluous or directly harmful to people and the planet. This implies, for example, cutting flights with rail alternatives, rethinking mobility focused on private cars, or halting resource-intensive industrial projects that generate a great environmental and social impact.
La efficiencyFor its part, it aims to offer the same services with fewer resources: well-insulated homes, more optimized industrial processes, or appliances that consume less electricity to perform the same task. Added together, According to the study, sufficiency and efficiency allow for a 39% reduction in final energy demand by 2040 compared to 2025., without diminishing the basic needs of the population.
The third pillar is a 100% renewable system, based primarily on solar and wind energy, with storage support and intelligent management of the electricity gridThe potential of these technologies in the Iberian Peninsula is very high: even excluding all usable agricultural land and protected areas or areas of high environmental sensitivityThe study concludes that the solar and wind resources available outside of these areas are more than ten times greater than the energy demand projected for the middle of the century.
The resulting model, Greenpeace emphasizes, It remains within the available carbon budget to ensure that global warming does not exceed 1,5°C, while at the same time reducing risks, costs and inequalities compared to a business-as-usual scenario in which current policies are maintained.
Energy scenarios and demand reduction
To build this roadmap, the UTS-ISF has developed several energy scenarios These scenarios compare the evolution of demand and its coverage in the Iberian Peninsula. The first is a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, reflecting the path resulting from current policies. The second, called Energy 4.0 (E4.0), proposes full coverage of demand with renewables supported by efficiency measures. The third, Energy 4.1 (E4.1), adds the dimension of sufficiency to the previous scenario.
This analysis covers around twenty sectors and subsectors of the Iberian economy, from transport and agriculture to the chemical industry, aluminum, construction or data centersThe E4.1 sufficiency scenario, which is the one Greenpeace proposes to follow, allows achieving the goal of net zero emissions in 2040 with less use of material and land resources.
In quantitative terms, the report estimates that Final energy demand could be cut by 72% in the Services12% in industry and 25% in buildings (residential and commercial) compared to current levels. These reductions would be achieved through electrification with renewables, territorial reorganization, and changes in consumption patterns.
The transport sector is one of those that would undergo the most profound transformation. The proposal involves... reduce flights by around 36% by 2040Eliminating those with a high-speed train alternative and reducing private flights, while promoting more compact urban mobility with a greater supply of public transport and services close to home to travel fewer kilometers on a daily basis.
In the industry, the plan suggests reduce production in energy-intensive sectors, such as steel, cement, or certain chemicalsand electrify thermal processes whenever possible. Where this is not possible, fossil fuels should be progressively replaced by renewable sources such as green hydrogen or synthetic fuels, provided that sustainable raw materials are used and efficiency is prioritized.
The end of coal, nuclear power, gas, and oil
One of the most striking aspects of Greenpeace's plan is the Clarity of the deadlines for abandoning the various fossil fuel and nuclear energy sourcesThe report proposes a phased timetable that would allow:
- Close coal by 2030, both in electricity generation and in other energy uses.
- Close down nuclear power plants between 2027 and 2035, respecting the closure schedule already planned in Spain.
- Eliminate the use of fossil gas and oil by 2040, once the electrification of the economy and the deployment of renewable energy are complete.
To achieve this goal, the study estimates that In the next decade, gas demand should decrease by 82% in Spain and 77% in Portugal.While oil consumption would have to fall by 68% in both countries, this would require significant changes in how people and goods are moved, buildings are heated, and industrial processes are powered.
Mass electrification of the economy is one of the keys. Greenpeace proposes that Around 70% of transport, 65% of industry, and 80% of the residential and commercial sector run on electricity. By 2040, the electricity system will be based entirely on renewables, energy storage, and flexible demand management. The organization assures that this will be achieved without the risk of blackouts, thanks to a combination of technologies and proper planning.
In parallel, the document expressly rules out resort to nuclear energy or CO2 capture and storage systems to balance the climate accounts. Greenpeace argues that these options are expensive, carry their own risks, and could delay the transformation to a decentralized and more democratic renewable energy model.
The organization itself emphasizes the geopolitical dimension of this shift. Gradually breaking off gas and oil import agreements with major fossil fuel exporters would, in its view, reduce dependence on international actors who use hydrocarbons as a tool of pressure and reduce exposure to crises such as those experienced in the Strait of Hormuz or as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.
Economic impact: savings and less pressure on resources
Beyond emissions, the report devotes a significant section to the economic effects of the energy transitionAccording to the calculations presented, opting for Greenpeace's roadmap would be significantly cheaper than maintaining the current course based on fossil fuels.
The model of sufficiency, efficiency and renewables would allow to save around 25.000 billion euros a year in Spain in investments in electricity and heat generation, as well as in the import of fossil fuels and uranium, compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Part of this saving would be explained by the lower volume of energy required and another part by not depending on fuels subject to high price volatility.
The study also focuses on the use of materials, particularly the critical minerals such as lithiumThese are fundamental for batteries and other transition technologies. Even with advanced recycling and sufficiency measures, lithium demand in 2040 would increase approximately 3,7 times compared to current levels; however, this growth would be roughly 75% lower than what would occur without these measures.
Regarding the territory, the sufficiency scenario E4.1 It prevents the occupation of approximately 120.000 hectares of land on the Iberian Peninsula. In contrast to the scenario of only E4.0 efficiency, the area covered is equivalent to twice the size of the island of Ibiza. The deployment of renewables is planned in an orderly fashion, prioritizing areas already altered by infrastructure or buildings and avoiding protected areas or areas of high agricultural value.
The authors of the report emphasize that the proposed transition It not only reduces economic and environmental costs, but also opens up opportunities for local value creation.A more distributed energy system, supported by community projects and self-consumption, could foster the emergence of employment linked to housing rehabilitation, network management, maintenance of renewable installations or the circular economy.
Social justice, health and citizen participation
Greenpeace's approach goes beyond kilowatts and tons of CO2. One of the report's central themes is social justiceThe organization insists that reducing energy demand cannot come at the expense of those already suffering from energy poverty or difficulties accessing basic services, but must be accompanied by guarantees of universal access.
In this sense, the proposed model seeks reduce waste and overconsumption in sectors with greater economic capacityWhile ensuring that everyone can adequately meet needs such as home heating and cooling, daily mobility, and access to water and basic services, the goal is to make living better with less energy both possible and socially desirable.
The impact on public health is also significant. A drastic reduction in the use of fossil fuels in transportation and industry would allow to significantly lower air pollution levels in citiesLess traffic and noise, and a more livable urban environment. This would translate into fewer respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, fewer premature deaths, and savings in healthcare costs.
Greenpeace places special emphasis on the citizen participation in decision-makingThe organization believes that major debates on energy, housing, mobility, food, employment, and education cannot be confined to expert panels or government offices. Therefore, it proposes creating a Permanent Citizens' Parliament to serve as a stable forum for guiding and overseeing the energy and eco-social transition.
This participatory model, the organization argues, would contribute to to shift the weight of decision-making from the boards of directors of large energy companies towards organized citizens, reinforcing the legitimacy of policies and facilitating a transition that responds to the real needs of the population and not just to corporate interests.
Political demands: towards a Green Social Contract
The roadmap presented does not remain at the technical level, but is accompanied by a battery of political proposals addressed to the Spanish and Portuguese governmentsGreenpeace is calling for an explicit commitment to a fossil fuel phase-out plan by 2040, backed by clear sectoral targets and a concrete timetable.
Among the demands, the need to triple the installed renewable power and self-consumption in Spain by 2040and double it in Portugal compared to current levels. It also calls for maintaining the already approved nuclear phase-out schedule, accelerating the electrification of the economy, and urgently ordering the deployment of renewable energy, prioritizing areas of low environmental sensitivity and community projects.
The organization also demands the end of aid and subsidies for fossil fuels, considered inefficient and harmful, and redirect those resources to measures that benefit the majority of society, such as affordable public transport, energy-efficient home renovation, adapting towns and cities to climate change, and supporting the groups and countries most affected by the climate crisis.
Another of the central pieces is the proposal of a Green Social Contract This agreement should encompass the retraining of jobs linked to fossil fuels and nuclear power, green taxation, biodiversity protection, and the reduction of inequalities. It should also include specific just transition plans and funds for the territories and workers affected by the closure of carbon-intensive activities.
Finally, Greenpeace insists on prioritize high-efficiency mineral recycling over primary extractionEstablish exclusion zones for mining in environmentally sensitive areas and minimize the use of renewable hydrogen, synthetic fuels and biofuels in favor of direct electrification, always ensuring the sustainability of raw materials.
The set of measures and objectives proposed in the report outlines an ambitious change of model, which aims to transform Spain and Portugal into leaders of the energy transition in EuropeThis anticipates the EU timetable by a decade. According to its authors, the combination of sufficiency, efficiency, and renewables would lower energy bills, reduce emissions within climate limits, improve health, and strengthen autonomy in the face of geopolitical crises, provided there is a decisive political push and active citizen participation to maintain the course.
