The feeling that it's raining less and getting hotter isn't just an impression. A new map produced by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's scientific service, confirms that desertification is advancing across the continent , with Spain leading the list of the most affected countries. The study, which for the first time applies a harmonized methodology to all 27 member states, reveals that 52,92% of Spanish territory shows signs of desertification, the highest percentage in the EU, followed by Cyprus (45,15%) and Greece (36%).
Desertification, defined by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas, does not mean that half of Spain has become a desert. It is a more subtle but equally worrying process: the loss of soil productivity due to a combination of climate variations and human activities, such as the overexploitation of aquifers , erosion, and fires.
A map that leaves no room for doubt
The JRC report identifies drylands using the aridity index and cross-references it with indicators of soil degradation, land cover, and productivity. The result is a map where the red areas are concentrated in the Iberian Peninsula, southern Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Romania. Drylands currently cover 15% of the EU, some 611.000 square kilometers , and of that area, 86,56% is already suffering from desertification, equivalent to about 530.000 square kilometers, roughly 12% of the EU's territory. Nearly 42 million people live in these degraded areas.
Spain stands out not only for the affected area, but also for the population at risk: around 43% of its inhabitants live in desertification zones, one of the highest proportions in the European Union. The report also notes that the new methodology detects two to three times more degraded land than previous approaches, which does not necessarily mean that the situation has suddenly worsened, but rather that it is now being measured with a more precise measure.
The future: the problem is expanding towards the center of Europe
The most worrying aspect of the new map is not just the current situation, but the projections. The JRC identifies an additional 1.004.608 square kilometers at high risk of desertification according to the aridity index scenarios for 2021-2040. A significant portion of these areas lies outside territories currently classified as arid , including parts of Germany, the Czech Republic, and Poland. The models predict that dry regions could expand by between 200.000 and 400.000 square kilometers in the coming decades, with the most pronounced changes in Spain, Italy, Greece, and the Balkans, although also encroaching on transitional zones in France, Hungary, and Romania.
In Spain, the first Desertification Atlas, published in 2025, already warned that 40% of the territory is undergoing desertification, a figure that doubles previous estimates by including areas affected by the overexploitation of water resources. Asturias, Galicia, Cantabria, and the Basque Country, due to their Atlantic climate and topography, are currently escaping this trend, but experts warn that climate change could progressively alter their environmental conditions.
COP17 in Mongolia: a battle over drought
In this context, the UNCCD COP17, taking place from August 17 to 28 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, arrives with an outstanding challenge: finalizing the binding agreement on drought that remained unresolved at the Riyadh, Saudi Arabia summit in 2024. Mongolia, with almost 82% of its territory degraded, is the symbolic host of a meeting that will bring together delegates from 197 countries to address land degradation, drought resilience, and rangeland restoration. The summit will include four thematic days dedicated to finance, water, land and population, and food systems and soil health.
Spanish scientists, such as Sergio Vicente-Serrano (IPE-CSIC) and Víctor Castillo Sánchez (CEBAS-CSIC), have emphasized that drought is a recurring problem in Spain and that it is necessary to shift from a reactive to a proactive policy. “There needs to be greater awareness at the societal level that drought is recurrent and we must be prepared for when it happens again,” Castillo Sánchez pointed out. COP17 will also serve to set the tone for the other two environmental summits to be held this year: the COP17 on biodiversity in Armenia (October) and the COP31 on climate in Turkey (November).
Solutions: from technology to traditional management
In the face of this situation, there are experiences that offer hope. In China, the 3.046-kilometer green belt around the Taklamakan Desert combines mechanical barriers, vegetation, and photovoltaic projects, with scientific stations like Cele's that have been researching how to stop the sand for four decades. In Africa, the Great Green Wall has restored 18 million hectares using community-based techniques such as zai pits and natural regeneration managed by farmers. In Israel, drip irrigation and the reuse of 84% of wastewater demonstrate that technology can maximize water efficiency.
In the Mediterranean, the solution lies in soil conservation: restoring terraces, maintaining vegetation cover, reducing deep plowing, and managing woodlands to prevent fires. The European Commission estimates that more than 60% of EU soils show some degree of degradation , with associated costs of between €40.900 billion and €72.700 billion annually. Spain, a pioneer in drought plans, must now strengthen public awareness and coordination between government bodies to prevent the problem from worsening.
Desertification is not inevitable. With reliable data, science, and political will, it is possible to halt soil degradation and adapt to a drier climate. But time is running out, and the European map already shows in red the future that awaits us if we do not act decisively.
