COP30 in Belém has brought back to the forefront a debate that seemed to have been shelved: how to turn Dubai's commitment into reality. leave fossil fuels behindAlthough the topic was not on the official agenda, the host has taken steps to ensure that the energy transition ceases to be a vague promise and has clear milestones.
From the start of the summit, Brazil has asked the leaders for a concrete plan, with the aim of getting the international community to move towards a just and planned transition that reduces dependence on oil, gas and coal, and does so in a way that is compatible with the development of the most vulnerable countries.
A roadmap taking shape
The Brazilian government, led by Minister Marina Silva, is working with several countries to develop a proposal that establishes Verifiable steps for phasing out fossil fuelsThe idea is currently being negotiated outside of formal discussions, with the possibility of incorporating it into the final decision or as a supplementary text.
Several drafts are already circulating among delegations, and some island states They have expressed their support in writing. There is an organizational precedent: at another recent COP, a technical plan to expand climate finance was agreed upon and subsequently developed over the following year.
Support: Europe, United Kingdom and Latin America
The United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Denmark are among the European countries that support the approach, together with Colombia and Kenya. From Berlin, the Secretary of State for Climate has indicated that agreeing on a roadmap in Belém would be a powerful political signal to accelerate the transition.
Colombia is also preparing a specific declaration to promote the orderly abandonment of fossil fuelsThe proposal, which is gaining traction with more governments, aims to build critical mass and facilitate its integration into future nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
Geopolitical obstacles and resistance
The path is not clear. Major producers, such as some Gulf countries, have shown reluctance towards any language that suggests a explicit elimination of fossil fuelsAlso weighing on the matter are recent decisions in international forums that halted attempts to impose carbon taxes in sectors such as maritime.
Meanwhile, several developing countries argue that the transition cannot be done without adequate funding, technology transfer and timelines adapted to their realities. As Kenya's climate envoy summarized, the world must move quickly, but «You can't change things overnight.«.
The pressure is mounting, and Spain is entering the fray.
The first week saw massive demonstrations and a People's Summit which demands abandoning fossil fuels and safeguarding the rights of affected communities. This social pressure is pushing for greater ambition and the finalization of a text that goes beyond well-intentioned declarations.
At the European level, the EU is being looked to for a chance to regain leadership and to Government of Spain so that it can use its political weight in the mitigation negotiations. Madrid has supported international initiatives that aim for a phase-out fair and orderly, and participates in alliances such as BOGA (Beyond Oil and Gas), although the challenge is to bring those positions to the heart of COP decisions.
End of fossil fuel financing and new fiscal levers
Ten years after Paris, fossil fuel subsidies persist at around $1,3 trillion annuallyAnd the accumulated private investment in the sector since 2015 amounts to 7,9 trillion. Social organizations are calling for these gaps to be closed and financial flows to be redirected towards a just transition.
A package of fiscal measures to align public and private money with climate action is gaining ground: Eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, taxing extraordinary profits in the sector, regulating bank portfolios, and creating taxes on carbon-intensive luxury consumption, such as VIP flightsSeveral countries are already exploring these instruments, and there are proposals to extend them in a coordinated manner.
- Scheduled removal of fossil fuel subsidies.
- Apply taxes on extraordinary profits of oil and gas companies.
- Regulate financial investments to avoid fossil bubbles.
- Implement specific rates to luxury aviation and other intensive consumption.
The role of the G20 and the ambition gap
The G20's responsibility is key: it brings together nearly 80% of emissions and 85% of global GDP. Following the Global Balance Sheet, countries agreed that to keep the 1,5°C limit alive they must reduce emissions by around 60% by 2035, triple renewables and double energy efficiency in 2030.
However, the national plans presented do not include, in many cases, clear commitments to phase out fossil fuels Nor are there quantified targets for renewables and efficiency. The risk of finalizing a merely symbolic document is on the table if concrete decisions are not made.
Trends: emissions, approaching peak, and window of opportunity
The latest Global Carbon Budget confirms that global emissions remain high and COâ‚‚ is accumulating, but some signs suggest that peak emissions This could change if the adoption of renewables accelerates. China, both the largest emitter and the leader in clean energy deployment, illustrates this duality.
In Europe, several countries —including Spain, France and Germany— have shown that economic growth can be decoupled from greenhouse gas emissions. Even so, the gap between promises and action persists, forcing a focus on... Dates, milestones and funding to abandon fossil fuels without leaving anyone behind.
If COP30 manages to put together a verifiable roadmap, supported by financing reform and coherent fiscal tools, the Dubai commitment will cease to be a slogan and become a reality. a real transformation timeline with room for European leadership and an active role for Spain.
