The Acciona group has once again placed the future of its renewables subsidiary at the center of market debate. The company, chaired by José Manuel Entrecanales, is again analyzing what to do with it. Acciona Energy, of which it controls around 91% of the capitalAmong the options being considered, the idea of launching a public takeover bid (OPA) to acquire 100% of the company and delist it from the stock exchange is gaining traction.
According to various financial sources, Acciona has gone a step further and hired Citi and Goldman Sachs as advisors to study all possible alternatives. On the table are options ranging from a takeover bid to delisting the company, to the entry of a major shareholder, a partial sale, a merger, or even maintaining the current status quo if it is concluded that making a move is not worthwhile.
Acciona is considering a takeover bid to delist the 9% it does not yet control.
Among the various scenarios being analyzed, the one that is attracting the most attention is that of a Takeover bid for exclusion about 100% of Acciona EnergíaIn practice, this would mean that the parent company would buy the 9% of the capital that is still held by minority and institutional shareholders and take the subsidiary off the stock exchange.
Estimates from various analysis firms, such as Bankinter and Banco SabadellThey estimate the cost of that hypothetical takeover bid to delist the company at between 650 and 700 million euros at current market prices. This figure is higher than what it would have been a few months ago, after the strong rebound in Acciona Energía's shares over the last year, with increases of around 40%-45%.
On the Stock Exchange, Acciona Energía is trading at around 23 euros per shareThe share price is below the €26,73 at which it debuted in the summer of 2021, but clearly above recent lows. The parent company, meanwhile, has a market capitalization of over €14.000 billion, compared to just over €7.500 billion for its renewable energy subsidiary, which was even worth more than the group at the height of the green energy boom.
It is worth remembering that in its initial public offering, Acciona placed around one 15% of the subsidiary is held by institutional investorsSince then, it has been buying back shares on the market, exceeding 90% and reaching approximately 91,11% currently, drastically reducing the free float available to minority shareholders and, consequently, the liquidity of the stock.
A strategic analysis that has been developing for a long time and is not limited to the takeover bid.
The possibility of a takeover bid to delist the company is not something that arises overnight. The company itself José Manuel Entrecanales already admitted about a year ago They were studying different formulas to reorganize the group's perimeter, including merging the renewables subsidiary with the parent company, taking it off the stock exchange, incorporating a partner, or not making any moves.
More recently, the company publicly acknowledged that it had hired an investment bank to evaluate corporate alternatives in light of Acciona Energía's weak stock market performance. It has now been confirmed that Citi and Goldman Sachs are the chosen ones, the same entities that already participated in the stock market debut of the subsidiary along with Bestinver and Morgan Stanley.
Currently, the range of options being analyzed is not limited to a takeover bid. Other options being considered include... entry of a reference shareholder in the capital of Acciona Energía, a possible sale of a relevant stake to a third party, a spin-off operation or even a merger with Acciona itself or with another group in the sector.
At the same time, various financial institutions agree that it is also valued do not make any immediate decisions or to articulate a combination of several of these alternatives in different phases, depending on how the electricity market, regulation and interest rates evolve.
Potential impact on debt, leverage and group valuation
One of the key aspects weighed in the analysis is the effect that any movement would have on the Acciona's debt and leverage ratiosAt the close of the last financial year, the group's total debt was around 7.000 billion euros, of which just over 4.100 billion corresponded to the renewable energy subsidiary.
According to Banco Sabadell's calculations, if Acciona decided to buy 100% of Acciona Energía At current prices, debt would increase by approximately 9,4%, and leverage would reach around three times EBITDA. In an alternative scenario, where the parent company opts to sell approximately 40% of the subsidiary, analysts estimate it could raise around €3.000 billion, equivalent to almost a third of its net debt, reducing the ratio to below two times EBITDA.
Bankinter, for its part, insists that the operation that is finally chosen must to promote growth, to help control debtto preserve the group's credit rating and generate value for all shareholders, both majority and minority. In this context, the firm maintains a cautious stance and a neutral recommendation on Acciona's shares, with target prices under review.
The strategists of Deutsche Bank are also showing caution They maintain a neutral view on Acciona Energía, valuing it in line with current share prices, around €23 per share. In their opinion, the subsidiary's priority is to complete its divestment program in an orderly manner to maintain its investment-grade rating.
Pressure for lower electricity prices and business evolution
In recent years, Acciona Energía's financial performance has been influenced by a less favorable electricity price environment in several of its key markets. This situation has taken a toll on the company's gross operating profit (EBITDA).
Bankinter points out that the Acciona Energía's operating EBITDA would have fallen by around 18% in 2024The company's stock price is projected to decline by approximately 13% in 2025 and could experience a further adjustment of around 5% in 2026, according to its forecasts. This trend, coupled with regulatory and price volatility, has reduced the subsidiary's stock market appeal and prompted the search for strategic alternatives.
Even so, the group maintains ambitious targets for the coming years. By 2026, internal projections indicate that Acciona could reach a Consolidated EBITDA in the region of 3.100 billion eurosOf which approximately 40% would come from Acciona Energía. In parallel, the company has set itself the goal of reducing the subsidiary's debt to below €3.000 billion.
In the information recently submitted to the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV), Acciona Energía has indicated that the first quarter is progressing in line with expectations. with the forecasts for the year, and that its asset rotation program is progressing as planned, with more than 1,5 GW of deals launched on the market and the intention to close the most advanced ones before summer.
Asset sale plan and recent transactions in renewables
To alleviate pressure on its balance sheet and strengthen its financial profile, Acciona and its subsidiary have launched a intensive divestment plan in renewable assets in different geographical areas. The idea is to rotate part of the portfolio once it matures, realize capital gains, and recycle capital towards new projects.
This program highlights several important operations. On the one hand, the agreement with Mexico Infrastructure Partners (MIP) to sell 49% of a photovoltaic portfolio of approximately 1.300 MW in the United States and two wind farms in Mexico totaling more than 320 MW. The combined value of this transaction is around $1.000 billion and its closing is expected in the second half of the year.
The sale of 440 MW of wind and photovoltaic assets to OpdenergyThese projects, spread across a dozen developments in provinces such as Albacete, Cádiz, Cuenca, Lleida, Valencia, and Zamora, have an average age of approximately 15 years and the potential for hybridization in some of the assets. Valued at around €530 million, they contributed significant gains to the group's accounts.
In Spain, Acciona Energía has also launched processes to divest itself of nearly 361 MW of wind powerThis is part of a larger package of approximately 1.500 MW of assets across various technologies worldwide. Over the past two years, the company's total asset transfers have amounted to around €3.200 billion in value and approximately €900 million in capital gains.
In parallel, the group has maintained its sustainable financing strategy. Among other operations, it has formalized a green syndicated loan of approximately 145 million euros The six-year loan is linked to its sustainable impact financing framework and aligned with the European Union's taxonomy. This transaction aims to diversify Acciona's funding base and leverage its creditworthiness in the green infrastructure sector.
Analysts' views and market reaction
The possibility of Acciona launching a takeover bid for the remaining stake in its subsidiary that it does not already control has been closely followed by the investment community. When it became known that Citi and Goldman Sachs had been hired To analyze options, the market reacted with increases in Acciona Energía shares, which advanced more than 3% in a session marked by the weakness of the Ibex 35 index.
XTB had already been pointing out, since the parent company exceeded 90% of the subsidiary's capital, that the high degree of control and the reduced free float They reinforced the scenario of a possible takeover bid to delist.In his opinion, this operation would allow Acciona to reorganize its energy portfolio and would have a significant impact on the renewable energy landscape in Spain.
However, not all analysts share the same enthusiasm. Banco Sabadell maintains a recommendation of “underweight” both Acciona and Acciona Energíawith target prices of around €174,9 for the parent company and €22,6 for the subsidiary. The bank believes that, although a corporate transaction could unlock value, it could also increase leverage if it is not accompanied by asset sales or an influx of new capital.
In the field of technical analysis, some experts, such as analyst Álvaro Nieto, are focusing on the recent evolution of Acciona Energía's chart. They point out that the price has overcome relevant resistance zones around 23,10 euros and has left an upward gap since the March lows, setting short-term targets in the area of 24,5 euros and, further up, in the 25,1-25,2 euro range, provided that key support levels such as 21,76 euros per share are not lost.
Bankinter, for its part, insists that no decision has yet been made and that Acciona has been evaluating the same alternatives for more than a year.Therefore, the recent news represents more of an update to the process than a radical shift in strategy. The key, according to the entity, will be to verify whether the chosen option actually translates into value creation and an improved risk profile for the group.
With all these elements on the table, the situation of Acciona and its renewable energy subsidiary has become one of the most closely watched topics by investors in the European energy sector: a possible takeover bid for delisting, combined with the asset rotation plan and market pressures on electricity prices, creates a scenario in which any corporate move could have significant consequences both for the group's structure and for the renewable energy landscape in Spain.
