The possibility of an exceptionally strong El NiƱo forming in the coming months is gaining traction among major international meteorological services. While it cannot yet be confirmed that it will reach the informal category of a "super" El NiƱo, the scenario of a strong or very strong event in 2026 is becoming increasingly likely as the models progress.
This potential resurgence of the phenomenon comes amid unprecedented global warming , leading scientists to view the 2026-2027 period with particular concern. Not only is a further increase in average global temperatures expected , but also significant changes in precipitation patterns, with a greater risk of extreme weather events in numerous regions, including Europe.
An unusually warm start to the year and a warming ocean
The most recent analyses from various climate research groups (such as NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF ) agree that the first three months of 2026 have been among the fourth warmest on record since reliable data has been available, only behind 2016, 2024 and 2025. Temperature anomalies have been progressively increasing as the La NiƱa conditions that dominated the tropical Pacific have dissipated .
The transition from a cold phase (La NiƱa) to a warmer one is one of the classic patterns preceding the development of El NiƱo . In 2026, observations show that the equatorial Pacific, both at the surface and in subsurface layers, is steadily accumulating heat , reinforcing the feeling that the climate system is on the verge of a new episode.
This warming is not an isolated event, but rather part of a planet that is already around 1,4-1,5Ā°C above pre-industrial levels. In this context, any additional boost from El NiƱo could translate into record-breaking years of global temperature, with clear impacts in the form of heat waves, droughts, and extreme rainfall.
For Europe and Spain, this backdrop, according to the climate forecast for Spain , means that summers, already very hot in recent years, may be accompanied by longer heat waves and more frequent tropical nights, even though the direct effects of El NiƱo are more pronounced in other regions of the world.
What do scientists mean by a "super" El NiƱo?
The term "super" El NiƱo has become popular in public discourse , even though it is not part of the official categories of all meteorological agencies. Generally, experts use this expression when the temperature anomaly in the NiƱo 3.4 region of the central and eastern Pacific exceeds +2Ā°C for several consecutive months.
The NiƱo 3.4 region is a reference area because it is where the ocean's response in the tropics is precisely monitored. When the temperature deviation remains above +0,5Ā°C, it is considered an El NiƱo event; if it exceeds +1,5Ā°C , it is classified as an intense El NiƱo ; and above +2Ā°C, it enters the realm of historical episodes that many media outlets describe as "super" El NiƱo.
Recent history is marked by the events of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 , which caused significant alterations in the global climate. These episodes were associated with flooding in some areas , severe droughts in others , drastic changes in hurricane patterns, and major disruptions to marine and terrestrial ecosystems.
Current climate models indicate that, for the period up to the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2026, the median of the simulations places the anomaly at around +2,2 ĀŗC in NiƱo 3.4. This value would place the planet in a scenario compatible with a very strong El NiƱo , clearly within the range in which a "super" episode is discussed, if it is confirmed and maintained.
However, not all models agree. Some prediction systems, such as CanESM5 or DWD , still suggest a weak or moderate El NiƱo . This discrepancy illustrates how difficult it remains to accurately anticipate the evolution of the phenomenon several months in advance.
Spring's predictability barrier and the probabilities for 2026
One of the concepts most frequently repeated by experts when discussing the future of El NiƱo in 2026 is the "predictability barrier" of spring . This refers to a period of the year, around the end of winter and spring in the Northern Hemisphere, when climate models have more difficulty capturing signals from the ocean and atmosphere , thus increasing uncertainties in forecasts.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), although the models point in the same direction, the figures should be interpreted with caution during this phase. Even so, simulations from various international centers (NOAA in the United States, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) agree that there is a high risk of El NiƱo developing during 2026.
Some reports already indicate a probability of over 60% that the phenomenon will develop between June and August, with the possibility of it extending until the end of the year. Recent projections based on European seasonal models even place the probability of a moderate El NiƱo very close to 100% by the end of summer, with around an 80% chance of a strong event and about a 20% chance of it reaching the "super" category.
Meteorologists remind us that a seemingly low probability can be significant if the potential consequences are very serious . Therefore, they emphasize treating this scenario as a risk management problem: it's not so much about accurately predicting the final intensity, but about preparing for plausible impacts that could affect us for several quarters.
The WMO plans to publish regular updates on the evolution of the El NiƱo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, refining forecasts for the equatorial Pacific and, consequently, for the global climate, month by month. From late spring onward, when the influence of the predictability barrier diminishes, forecasts typically become more reliable.
Will 2026 be one of the warmest years on record?
Estimates from various scientific teams, such as the Carbon Brief project , indicate that the average global temperature in 2026 could be between +1,37Ā°C and +1,58Ā°C above pre-industrial levels, with a central value around +1,47Ā°C . This would virtually guarantee that year will be among the top four warmest years on record.
Probability calculations indicate a very high chance, close to two-thirds , that 2026 will end up being the second warmest year on record , surpassed only by one of the recent records. However, a more extreme scenario cannot be ruled out : there is an estimated 20% probability that 2026 will become the warmest year in recorded history, and another 20% that it will rank third or fourth.
Experts point out that the peak of El NiƱo on global temperatures usually occurs with a slight delay. The atmosphere's response to the warming peak in the tropical Pacific tends to be reached about three months later . If the phenomenon intensifies in the second half of 2026 and reaches its maximum between November and January, 2027 will most likely see the most significant temperature impact.
In practice, this means that while 2026 is already projected to be very high in the heat rankings, even more extreme global values āācould be seen in 2027 , pushing the planetary average to levels close to +1,8Ā°C above pre-industrial levels for several months. Such a scenario would clearly increase the risk of severe weather events in numerous regions.
For Europe, and especially for Mediterranean countries like Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal , a couple of consecutive years of such high global temperatures usually translate into longer and more intense summers , early springs and milder autumns, with direct impacts on agriculture, water resources, public health and forest fire management.
Possible effects in Europe and Spain of a very intense El NiƱo
Although the most direct impacts of El NiƱo are concentrated in the Pacific and the tropics , its repercussions extend across the entire planet through changes in atmospheric circulation and the jet stream. For Europe, this can mean modifications to the trajectory of storms , the position of anticyclones, and the frequency of incursions of extremely warm air from lower latitudes.
In years with a strong El NiƱo, several studies have observed a greater tendency for the North Atlantic to exhibit a somewhat warmer pattern in winter, with storms shifting further north. This can translate, in certain configurations, into periods of intense rainfall in parts of western and northwestern Europe, while the western Mediterranean, including much of Spain, may experience alternating periods of highly concentrated precipitation.
During the summer, global warming and the presence of a strong El NiƱo could increase the likelihood of prolonged heat waves in the Iberian Peninsula. In recent years, warm air masses from North Africa have been observed reaching the region more frequently, leading to extreme daytime and nighttime temperatures. A new global warming trend makes it plausible that these episodes will become even more recurrent.
Furthermore, the rise in the average temperature of the Mediterranean Sea means that, when very warm, humid air combines with favorable dynamic conditions, torrential rains can occur in areas of the eastern and southeastern coast of Spain. Although not every episode can be automatically attributed to El NiƱo, the combination of a warmer ocean with additional forcing from the tropical Pacific tends to favor more intense extremes.
In a planning context, these scenarios lead European meteorological services and public administrations to strengthen the monitoring of extreme heat events, droughts, and heavy rainfall . Sectors such as agriculture, water and energy management, and public health increasingly depend on seasonal climate information to anticipate and reduce risks.
In short, the scenario painted by the models for 2026-2027 is one of a climate system subjected to the combination of very advanced global warming and a potentially very intense El NiƱo . Although uncertainties remain as to whether it will reach the level of a "super" event, the probability of a strong episode is high and sufficient for Europe and Spain to focus on adaptation and preparedness for a couple of years that could set new records for temperatures and extreme weather events.
