The possibility that a The exceptionally intense El Niño In the coming months, it is gaining strength in major international meteorological services. Although it cannot yet be confirmed that it will reach the informal category of a "super" El Niño, the scenario of such an episode strong or very strong in 2026 It becomes more established as the models progress.
This possible resurgence of the phenomenon also comes in a context of unprecedented global warmingThis has scientists looking with particular concern at the 2026-2027 period. Not only is a new boost expected to the average temperatures of the planetbut also noticeable changes in rainfall patterns, with a greater risk of extreme events in numerous regions, including Europe.
An unusually warm start to the year and a warming ocean
The most recent analyses from various climate research groups (such as NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWFThey agree that the first three months of 2026 have fallen between the warmest rooms on record Since reliable data has been available, only 2016, 2024 and 2025 have seen higher temperatures. Temperature anomalies have been progressively increasing as the heat has dissipated. La Niña conditions that dominated the tropical Pacific.
The transition from a cold phase (La Niña) to a warmer one is one of the classic patterns preceding the development of El NiñoIn 2026, observations show that the equatorial Pacific, both at the surface and in subsurface layers, is accumulating constant heatThis reinforces the feeling that the climate system is on the verge of a new episode.
This warming is not an isolated event, but rather part of a planet that is already around 1,4-1,5 ºC above from pre-industrial levels. In that context, any additional boost from El Niño could translate into record-breaking years of global temperature, with clear impacts on heat waves, droughts and extreme rainfall.
For Europe and Spain, this backdrop, according to the weather forecast in SpainThis means that summers, already very hot in recent years, may be accompanied by longer-lasting heat waves and more frequent tropical nights, even though the direct effects of El Niño are more pronounced in other regions of the world.
What do scientists mean by a "super" El Niño?
The term has become popular in public debate "Super" The KidAlthough it is not part of the official categories of all meteorological agencies. Generally speaking, experts tend to use this expression when the temperature anomaly In the Niño 3.4 region of the central and eastern Pacific, it exceeds + 2 ºC for several consecutive months.
The Niño 3.4 region is a reference area because it accurately monitors how the ocean responds in the tropics. When the temperature deviation remains above + 0,5 ºC There is talk of an El Niño event; if it exceeds + 1,5 ºC, is classified as The intense El NiñoAnd above +2 ºC, we enter the realm of historical episodes that many media outlets describe as "super".
Recent memory is marked by the events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16which caused very marked alterations in the global climate. Those episodes were associated with flooding in some areas, severe droughts in otherdrastic changes in hurricane distribution and major alterations in marine and terrestrial ecosystems.
Current climate models indicate that, for the period up to the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2026, the median of the simulations places the anomaly around + 2,2 ºC in Niño 3.4. This value would place the planet in a scenario compatible with a A very strong El Niño, clearly within the range in which we speak of a "super" episode, if it is confirmed and maintained.
However, not all models agree. Some prediction systems, such as CanESM5 or DWDThey still suggest an El Niño of intensity weak or moderateThis disparity illustrates just how difficult it remains to accurately anticipate the evolution of the phenomenon several months in advance.
Spring's predictability barrier and the probabilities for 2026
One of the concepts that experts repeat most often when talking about the future of El Niño in 2026 is the spring's "predictability barrier"This is a period of the year, around the end of winter and spring in the Northern Hemisphere, when climate models have more difficulty predicting the weather. to capture signals from the ocean and the atmosphere and, therefore, uncertainties in forecasts increase.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), although the models point in the same direction, the figures must be interpreted with caution during this phase. Even so, simulations from various international centers (NOAA in the United States, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) agree that there is a high risk of El Niño becoming established throughout 2026.
Some reports are already talking about probabilities above 60% that the phenomenon will develop between June and August, with the possibility of it extending until the end of the year. Recent projections based on European seasonal models even place the probability of a The moderate El Niño very close to 100% by the end of summer, with around a 80% chance of a strong episode and around a 20% chance that it reaches the category of "super".
Meteorologists remind us that a seemingly low probability can be relevant if the The potential consequences are very serious.Therefore, it is emphasized that this scenario should be treated as a risk management problem: it is not so much about getting the final intensity down to the millimeter, but about prepare for plausible impacts that could affect us for several quarters.
The WMO plans to publish regular updates on the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, refining the forecasts for the equatorial Pacific and, consequently, for the global climate month by month. From late spring onwards, when the influence of the predictability barrier decreases, the forecasts tend to become more reliable.
Will 2026 be one of the warmest years on record?
Estimates from various scientific teams, such as the project Carbon BriefThey suggest that the average global temperature in 2026 could be between +1,37 ºC and +1,58 ºC compared to the pre-industrial era, with a central value around + 1,47 ºCThis would place the year virtually guaranteed within the Top 4 warmest years since instrumental records have been made.
Probability calculations indicate that there is a very high chance, close to two-thirdsthat 2026 ends as the second warmest year, only surpassed by one of the recent records. However, a [unclear] cannot be ruled out. most extreme scenarioThere is an estimated 20% chance that 2026 will be the hottest year on record, and another 20% chance that it will rank third or fourth.
Experts clarify that the El Niño peak thrust The effect on global temperatures usually occurs with some delay. The atmosphere's response to the peak warming in the tropical Pacific tends to be reached around three months laterIf the phenomenon intensifies in the second half of 2026 and reaches its peak between November and January, it is most likely that 2027 will register the most notable thermal impact.
In practice, this means that, although 2026 is already projected to be very high in the heat ranking, it is in 2027 that the worst effects could be seen. even more extreme global valuespushing the planetary average towards levels close to + 1,8 ºC above pre-industrial levels for several months. Such a scenario would clearly increase the risk of severe weather events in numerous regions.
For Europe, and especially for Mediterranean countries like Spain, Italy, Greece or PortugalA couple of consecutive years of such high global temperatures usually result in longer and more intense summersEarly springs and milder autumns, with direct impacts on agriculture, water resources, public health and forest fire management.
Possible effects in Europe and Spain of a very intense El Niño
Although the most direct impacts of El Niño are concentrated in the Pacific and in the tropicsIts repercussions extend across the entire planet through changes in atmospheric circulation and the jet stream. For Europe, this could mean modifications to the storm path, in the position of anticyclones and in the frequency of extremely warm air inflows from lower latitudes.
In years with a strong El Niño, several studies have observed a greater tendency for a pattern to occur in winter with the The North Atlantic is somewhat warmer. and a shift of storms towards more northerly areas. This can translate, in certain configurations, into episodes of heavy rainfall in parts of western and northwestern Europe, while the western Mediterranean, including much of Spain, may experience alternating with episodes of highly concentrated precipitation.
During the summer, global warming and the presence of a strong El Niño can increase the likelihood of prolonged heat waves in the Iberian Peninsula. In recent years, it has been observed that masses of warm air from North Africa are reaching the region more frequently, leading to extreme temperatures both day and night. A new global heat wave makes it plausible that these episodes will become even more recurrent.
Furthermore, the increase in the average temperature of the Mediterranean Sea implies that, when combined very warm and humid air With favorable dynamic conditions, they can be recorded Torrential rains in areas of the eastern and southeastern coast of Spain. Although not every episode can be automatically attributed to El Niño, the combination of a warmer ocean with additional forcing from the tropical Pacific tends to favor more intense extremes.
In a planning context, these scenarios lead European meteorological services and public administrations to strengthen the monitoring of extreme heat events, droughts and heavy rainfallSectors such as agriculture, water and energy management, and public health are increasingly dependent on it. seasonal climate information to anticipate and reduce risks.
In short, the scenario painted by the models for 2026-2027 is that of a climate system subjected to a combination of very advanced global warming and a possible The El Niño of great intensityAlthough uncertainties remain as to whether it will reach the category of a "super" event, the probability of a strong episode is high and sufficient for Europe and Spain to focus on the adaptation and preparation facing a couple of years that could mark new milestones in temperatures and extreme phenomena.
